You Can Find Me on Twitter @delrayboston
I took some time off from DFS, from Fantasy really, over the last 10 days leading into Christmas. I built a few lineups and pushed them out on Twitter, some paid off some didn’t and generally I just tried to tune fantasy out of my life for a week and a half. In my re-draft leagues for the first time in at least 5 years I am on the outside looking in for the playoffs, here in Week 16 and that just hit me hard. But as Detroit’s favorite son says … I’m Back, The Fog Has Lifted, The Earth Has Shifted, So hit the road Jack, cuz daddy’s home …
Week 16 For DFS is like a tale of three NFLs. You have the teams who must win to be in,he teams that a win will help seeding (as well as potential division titles) and then everyone else. Let’s start with the Everyone Else:
It is going to sound nuts, but I am pulling my building blocks for DFS lineups today from this group:
LINEUP BUILDING BLOCKS:
Matt Ryan – $5,400 – Playing for nothing but his good looks at home against the Lions and Falcons 2022-23 Ticket Sales. Stack with Russell Gage, Kyle Pitts or Corredelle Patterson and the Falcons Defense. The Lions are starting Goff’s Backup Tim Boyle… good luck Lions Fans
Davis Mills – BRANDIN COOKS HAS BEEN RULED OUT WITH COVID-19. Play Mills and Texans at your own risk. $5,500 – a Mills – Brandin Cooks stack will go way under the radar against the Chargers and with David Johnson on the Covid 19 list, Phillip Lindsey and Rex Burkhead (adept pass catchers) will be there for check downs too.
LIONS RUNNING BACKS: Jamaal Williams is $5,000. Craig Reynolds (Swift is out) is $4,500. The Falcons over 120 yards on the ground and again the Lions are starting Tim Boyle. Expect a ton of check downs.
David Montgomery: $5,700 plays Seattle, near dead last against Running Backs. The Bears will be with Nick Foles under center and I expect the centerpiece of this offense in this game to be Monty.
Saquon Barkley: $6,500 will fly under the radar today in a game where the Giants will love to play spoiler to the Eagles hoping for a miracle Wild Card. For all the talk of the Eagles being tough against the run, they are 23rd against running backs. Same Game Miles Sanders is $1,000 less and no one is looking at him either. The Giants are equally bad against running backs.
DJ Moore: $5,700 against the Buccaneers. The Bucs are in Must Win Mode, we get it and Cam Newton isn’t a reliable start, we get it. But Moore’s last 3 games have been 6 for 48, 6 for 84 and 4 for 104. At 6% ownership against a Bucs defense allowing around 250 yards through the air, I’ll take a shot and hope for 4 for 104 and 1.
Laquan Treadwell: $3,500 plays the Jets. 3% ownership, at home in DUVALL, he has seen 5 or more targets in the last 4 games and the Jets allow over 250 passing yards. Treadwell only needs 100 of those an score and his 3% ownership really is a winner for you. I’ll also mention Marvin Jones Jr here too.
James Robinson – The Jets are Dead Last in the League and Robinson is under 6K today on DK. Oh year and he is at home in DUVALL. C’mon.
SEATTLE DEFENSE: $3,000 will fly under the radar today and they get Nick Foles in his first NFL Start in over 15 Months. This is a MUST WIN for Seattle to have a shot at a wild card.
Ok now the building blocks are out of the way, who am I using to build around them:
Pat Mahomes – Must win for the Chiefs playoff berth and division title he is at home against Steelers. I’ll add in Tyreek Hill as stacking option. Travis Kelce is on the Covid-19 list. Run it back with Diontae Johnson or Chase Claypool or Najee Harris (Freiermuth is out)
Josh Allen – Must win to keep pace with the Patriots in the division and for a playoff berth, last time in Foxborough he threw 4 touchdown passes. I’ll add in Emmanuel Sanders and Dawson Knox as stacking options. The Patriots are very good at taking away the #1 (Diggs) and both Beasley and Davis are on the Covid List. Run it back with Damien Harris.
Tom Brady – Must win for the Buccaneers playoff hopes, Godwin and Evans are out – no one is playing Tom Brady. Stack him with Gronk and ANTONIO BROWN! Run it back with DJ Moore. Sneaky is the Buccaneers defense who likely will need to carry the team to win today.
Justin Herbert – Must win for the Chargers playoff hopes, Ekeler is on the Covid-19 List, easy stack with Keenan Allen against the Texans. No run back needed. I like the Chargers Defense too.
Matthew Stafford – Must Win for the Rams playoff hopes, Stack with Cooper Kupp or Van Jefferson or Odell or Mix and match. Game stack with both Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen -or both. Dalvin Cook is on the Covid list, Cousins will be throwing. For what it’s worth Tyler Higbee should be back today too.
Russell Wilson – the Seahawks still have a shot at the playoffs in their minds. DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett or both in a stack works for me. Don’t forget the Seattle Defense since Nick Foles is starting too. Run it back with Montgomery
Joe Borrow – The Bengals could have a shot at a wild card if they win and a few other things go their way. Stack with Ja’Mar Chase and/or Tee Higgins – Joe Dixon is IN BUT Borrow will be throwing. Run it back with Devonta Freeman.
Jalen Hurts – against the Giants with a chance at a playoff berth – stack with Devonta Smith, Jalen Raeagor, Quez Watkins and Dallas Goedert – run it back with Saquon
Other Running Backs I am looking at that I haven’t already mentioned:
Alexander Mattison against the Rams
Melvin Gordon against the Raiders
Javonte Williams against the Raiders
Clyde Edwards-Helaire against the Steelers
Darrell Henderson against the Vikings
Chubba Hubbard against the Buccaneers
Other Wide Receivers I am looking at that I haven’t already mentioned:
Devonta Smith against the Giants
Marquise Brown against the Bengals
Darnell Mooney, Damiere Byrd against Seattle
Deshawn Jackson against Denver
Other Tight Ends I am looking at that I haven’t already mentioned:
Mark Andrews against Bengals
Hunter Henry against Buffalo
Jared Cook against Houston
Evan Engam against Eagles
Cole Kmet against Seattle
Jimmy Graham against Seattle (TD or Bust)
Zach Gentry against KC (Freiermuth is out)
DSTs I like today:
GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS!