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The Saints must feel happy that this very important Week 16 Game is at home in the Superdome and not in South Florida. I’ve talked about the South Florida in December hoodoo voodoo many times and had the Jets been in DUVAL County yesterday, maybe there would have been a different result. But I say the Saints must be happy, because this Monday Night game is SO important for any chance for New Orleans to sniff a wild card spot. ESPN has the Saints with a 47% chance of making the playoffs, but if they lose tonight, those odds drop to roughly 20%.
Meanwhile the Dolphins come into this game on a 6 game winning streak and believe it or not, ESPN gives their playoff odds currently at 6% – but with a win here, those odds can only go up. So both teams have something to play for and again I think the Saints are glad to be in the Superdome where more often than not the hoodoo and voodoo swing the way of the Gold and Black.
The problem for the Saints however is COVID-19, with (as of Sunday Night) both Taysom Hill and backup Trevor Siemian are both expected out. This puts the ball and potentially the Saints playoff hopes in the hands of Ian Book (aka WHO?) and that can’t make the bayou faithful feel secure.
So let’s get into this game with some Captains Picks and then some Strategy and Dart Throws.
Tua Tagovailoa: $15,300 Captain. The first thing to note is that in 3 of Tua’s last 4 games he has had a completion percentage of 73% or higher. At least one of those games was without Davante Parker, at least one of those games was without Jaylen Waddle and all of those games have been without Wil Fuller. So what does that mean? Tua is just finding a way to get it done under center. 7 Games this season Tua has also scored 16 or higher fantasy points. If the Dolphins have any chance to make the playoffs, it is on the arm of Tua and I like him at Captain.
Jaylen Waddle: $17,400 Captain. Waddle has lived up to the billing he received in the draft this season – no doubt about it. He has a shot at 1000 yards on the season with 3 games left, he sits at 849 currently. Waddle missed the last game and that is a shame. He was on back to back 90+ yard games with a touchdown between those games too. The Saints rank 22nd against Wide Receiver and are allowing near 250 yards of passing. If I like Tua, I have to like his #1 Target.
Alvin Kamara: $18,300 Captain. No matter who is under center, Alvin Kamara is the Saints Offense. Only once this season has Kamara seen single digit rush attempts and only once this season has Kamara not been targeted in the passing game. Lastly only twice this season has Kamara failed to reach double digit fantasy points. The fear here is that the Dolphins put all of their 8th ranked against running backs defense in to stop Kamara, but again – that strategy has only happen twice this season. At home this season Kamara is averaging 16.5 Fantasy points and while he will be the most popular Captain, he also will likely be a part of whatever lineup wins the tournament you are entered in. I like him at MVP on FanDuel too.
Mark Ingram: $7,800 Captain. Since returning to the Saints, Ingram is averaging 12 touches per game and 4.5 target too and while he is of course #2 behind Alvin Kamara, I would not be shocked at all with Ian Book under center if we don’t see the Saints game plan to have both Ingram and Kamara on the field as much as possible. He will be a sneaky play at Captain on Dk and at MVP on FanDuel with most players on Kamara and with the #8 in red in the matchup column – but I’ll have my shots.
Davante Parker: $14,100 Captain. While he hasn’t been on the field all season, when he is on the field he is averaging 6 targets per game. A very talented route runner, there is a high likelihood the Saint throw the double team on Waddle, which will only open up more underneath and on the sidelines for Parker. Over the last 4 games Parker has also averaged 68.6 yards and had 2 touchdowns. I think if Miami has a shot here, it will take both Waddle and Parker showing up and shelling out.
Defenses: You know if you have read my showdown articles before you know I am not normally an advocate for Defenses at Captain. However in this case, I think both are completely viable. The Dolphins defense should take as much credit for this recent 6 game winning streak as the offense. Since week 9 they have been one of the top scoring defenses in the league and now they get to face a backup for a backup making his NFL debut. The Saints are at home in the Superdome where they have made consistent defensive stands for years, but now they also get Miami offense that just 6 games ago was among the bottom half of the league for scoring. This could be a low scoring affair and why not take a shot on the defenses.
Dart Throw Captains
Brett Maher (Kicker)
Jason Sanders (Kicker)
Lineup Strategy & Dart Throws
The first thing you are probably saying is – only 2 Saints (not counting the defense) on the Captain’s list? Probably followed by, all of the Saints primary receivers are dart throw Captains? Yes to both and there is a simple reason why – Ian Book. We have no idea what this passing offense will look like with Book. Any one of those receivers could be “Book’s Guy” out there – but which one? Each have had their games this season so your guess is as good as mine. So I listed them all there. What we do know is that Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram will be big pieces of this offense, because they are… every game… so yeah, they are the only two I put on the Captain’s list.
Next you’re saying – wait, no Dolphins Running backs at Captain? They are dart throws too? Yes. That is how I have them. Two reasons, the first being – we really don’t know how this backfield will split. Last week Duke Johnson came out of nowhere with 107 yards and 2 scores. But Myles Gaskin was active but was likely limited in action coming off Covid. So do the Dolphins stick with the Hot hand in Duke or do they go back to Myles or is it a time share? Don’t forget you have new acquisition Phillip Lindsey now also available to play too. With a lot of unknowns in the Dolphins backfield, it also should be noted that the Saints are 2nd in the NFL against Running Backs averaging UNDER 100 yards per game. I guess I am just not as high on Miami’ rushing game as I am their passing game.
If I am playing Tua at Captain I am starting the Stack with Jaylen Waddle and then mixing and matching Davante Parker and Mike Gesicki. I also don’t mind a dart throw on a third receiver such as Isiah Ford. I also don’t mind using the Dolphins Defense here and only Running this back with Kamara.
If I am playing a Dolphins Receiver at Captain, stacking with Tua will be my priority and then I may use a Miami Running Back here in place of a double stack on Receivers. I also think Mike Gesicki is viable in this lineup as well as the kicker Sanders. Kamara or Ingram would be my top run backs here.
If I am using Kamara at Captain, you can take a chance at Ian Book in your lineup for sure. I also think the Saints Defense and kicker Brett Maher. Jaylen Waddle and Davante Parker are priorities as runbacks and if you aren’t using the Saints D, you can pair a Dolphins receiver with Tua.
If I am using Ingram at Captain, I am stacking him with Kamara and at least 1 Saint receiver and the Saints Defense. You can choose any of the main 3 (Callaway, Smith or Humphrey) but also I think a dart throw at Kenny Stills (if he is active) or Tight End Nick Vannett. Waddle and Parker are again a priority for a run back.
If I am using a Defense at Captain, I am building the rest of the lineup around that team and running it back with the opposing Kicker.
If I am using a Dolphins Running back at Captain, I am stacking with the Dolphins Defense, Tua and a Miami Receiver (Waddle, Parker, Ford, Gesicki). Kamara would be my priority run back along with either Kicker.
If I am using a Saints Receiver, I’d take a stab at Ian Book and you should have enough money to get Kamara in as well I even don’t mind stacking Ingram too here. You should have enough left for Tua and a pass catcher as a run back.
If I am using a Kicker at Captain, I am primarily stacking the rest of my lineup with the opposing team and choosing one skill position player from the Kickers team.
Lastly if I am using Ian Book at Captain I am loading it with as many pass catchers as I can including Kamara, and running the stack back with the kicker Sanders.
Good Luck in your Contests!