Week 18 NFL – DFS Sunday Preview – So, It’s Come Down To This – Real Deal Fantasy HQ

You Can Find Me on Twitter @DelRayBoston

Here we are week 18 and we have some teams vying for a playoff spot while other teams already a week into preparation for the post season. So how to attack this situation in DFS? Obviously that is something you need to decide on. So in today’s article I am going to do something a little different. I am going to look at Game by Game and tell you what I am actually doing. Yes. That means if I am avoiding a game all together, I will tell you. The reason for this is I will also be able to lay out for you the different scenarios teams are facing in regards to playoff hopes or seeding. So let’s start with the early window:

1PM GAMES

BENGALS VS BROWNS:

The Bengals are locked in for the playoffs and win, lose or draw here that won’t change. Additionally with the Chiefs’ victory yesterday the only way the Bengals can increase their playoff positioning is if the Titans lose to the Texans which they have no control of. Thus JOE BURROW will sit today. JOE MIXON will sit today. I would guess we won’t see much from Ja’mar Chase, Tee Higgins or most of the rest of the starting offense either. Additionally on the BROWNS side, BAKER MAYFIELD IS OUT.

DFS PLAYS IN THIS GAME:

Nick Chubb $7,900 – 3% Ownership

Bengals DST $3,000 – 1% Ownership

Browns DST $2,600 21% Ownership

GREEN BAY PACKERS vs DETROIT LIONS

The Packers have clinched the #1 Seed in the NFC and will receive a 1st Round Bye in the playoffs. They do not need to win this game, nor do they need to worry about any outcome from any other NFC team’s games. There is no reason why any Packers Starters should play today though AARON ROGERS has said he wants to play. HOT TAKE – I am not playing Packers today. I would not be surprised if ROGERS, ADAMS, JONES, DILLON any of them don’t even make it through the first quarter. Additionally for the Lions, JARED GOFF is highly Questionable.

DFS Plays in this game:

Deandre Swift $6,900 – 6% owned

Amarah St Brown $6,800 – 7% owned (Especially if Jared Goff Plays)

Packers DST $3,500 – 1% owned

Lions DST $2,400 – 7% owned

BEARS vs VIKINGS

Both of these teams are eliminated from Playoff Contention. In fact pretty much the only two things on the line today are pride and Minnesota’s chance to move up into the Top 10 in next year’s Draft. But what we know are two things: KIRK COUSINS will play today. JUSTIN FIELDS will not. Oh and JUSTIN JEFFERSON needs 6 receptions to overtake Michael Thomas for the most receptions in a player’s first two seasons.

I Love Me Some Vikings Stacks Today:

Kirk Cousins $6,100 – 2.4% owned

Justin Jefferson $8,100 – 18% owned

Dalvin Cook $7,800 – 12% owned

KJ Osborn $5,500 – 1% owned

Tyler Conklin $4,200 – 1% owned

Vikings DST $2,900 – 12% owned

Run the stack back with:

David Montgomery $6,800 13% owned

Darnell Mooney $5,900 8% owned `

I don’t even hate a sneaky Bears DST $2,700 at no ownership as a one off. I think this is a game that you can build around. Pride between these two teams is a big deal and the Bears pass catchers (outside of Mooney) are all cheap and great for lineup fillers too. I expect this game to be sneakily high scoring despite calling out the DSTs here.

WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM vs NEW YORK GIANTS

Both of these teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. Neither team can make any difference in their draft positions either. However unlike the above game of non-playoff contenders, nothing about this game appeals to me with for the most part two sub par offenses squaring off against two middle of the road defenses. This is a stay away spot for me. If a WFT or Giant Player beats me in a tournament, so be it. I am ok with avoiding this game entirely today.

DFS PLAYS IN THIS GAME: None

COLTS vs JAGUARS

If the COLTS win today, they are in – OR if the Bengals Lose – but let’s stay with the Win and You Are In part of this sentence. The Jaguars are OUT. We know this. Additionally, win lose or draw they cannot gain ground in next year’s draft more than they already have. I am not playing Jaguars today. If the Jags beat me, they beat me so be it. Who am I playing from this game:

JONATHAN TAYLOR $9,300 18% owned – is as close to a lock for me as can be.

Other DFS Plays in this game:

Carson Wentz $5,800 – 4% owned

Michael Pittman JR $5,900 – 10% owned

TY Hilton $4,700 – 1% owned

Austin Dulin $3,200 – no ownership

Jack Doyle $2,700 – no ownership

Colts DST $3,800 – 1% ownership

STEELERS vs RAVENS

This game is very interesting to me. Both teams need to WIN to have a chance at the playoffs. However, it isn’t just a win and you are in scenario like with the Colts. The Steelers need to win AND have both the Colts Lose AND the Chargers-Raiders game not to end in a tie to get in. The Ravens on the other hand need to win AND have the Chargers, Colts and Dolphins all lose to get in. So I expect we will see a very competitive game in Baltimore today. Unfortunately it will be without LAMAR JACKSON. Also JAMES WASHINGTON. I like a lot of DFS Plays in this game. I like Steelers Stacks, I like Ravens Stacks. I especially like it because for the most part, the whole game is being overlooked.

DFS Plays in this game:

Ben Roethlisberger $5,400 – 1% owned

Dionte Johnson $7,600 – 3% owned

Chase Claypool $5,100 – 8% owned

Najee Harris $7,200 – 6% owned

Ray Ray McCloud $3,800 – no ownership

Pat Freiermuth $4,600 – 2% owned

Steelers DST $3,000 – 4% owned

Tyler Huntley $5,700 – 6% owned

Marquise Brown $5,900 – 10% owned

Rashod Bateman $4,900 – 3% owned

Mark Andrews $7,500 – 5% owned

Devonta Freeman $5,200 – no ownership

Latavius Murray $4,400 – no ownership

Sammy Watkins $3,900 – no ownership (especially if Devin Douvernay is ruled out)

TITANS vs TEXANS

Since the Chiefs won yesterday, the Titans need to win this game to clinch the #1 Seed in the AFC and the first round bye. They did NOT activate The King for this game. Will they prevail. Also the Texans are OUT. The Titans are seeing a lot of ownership. The Texans playing only to spoil their rivals’s hopes & dreams, are not – outside of Brandin Cooks. Titans Stacks will be popular with Brandin Cooks as a run back. I can see it clearly.

DFS Plays in this Game:

Ryan Tannehill $6,000 – 10% owned

Davis Mills $5,300 4% owned

D’onta Foreman $5,700 – 18% owned

Rex Burkhead $5,200 1% owned

AJ Brown $7,000 20% owned

Brandin Cooks $6,300 15% owned

Julio Jones $5,000 3% owned

Geoff Swaim $3,300 – no ownership

Titans DST $3,300 – 6% owned

Texans DST $2,600 – no ownership

4PM GAMES

SAINTS vs FALCONS

The Saints clinch a playoff spot if they WIN and the 49ers Lose. The Falcons are out. How do I see this game playing out? That doesn’t matter. What does matter is:

ALVIN KAMARA is $8,300 and only 6% owned in an match up with ATLANTA. Lock it in.

Other DFS Plays in this game:

Taysom Hill $6,200 – 9% ownership

Mark Ingram $5,400 – no ownership (If He Plays)

Cordarrelle Patterson $6,400 – 7% ownership

Russell Gage $5,600 – 2% ownership

Kyle Pitts $5,700 – 3% ownership (If Pitts doesn’t play, take a flier on Hayden Hurst)

I think you can also look to Saints Pass Catchers for cheap lineup fillers, it is just so difficult to determine which will go off. My favorites are Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Adam Trautman but they are all cheap and no one plays Saints Pass Catchers.

JETS vs BILLS

The Bills are locked into the playoffs and if they win here and the Patriots lose, they are the AFC Champions for the second year in a row. The Jets meanwhile are out. I expect the Bills to come out swinging early in an attempt to put this game on ice early. Meanwhile I expect the Jets to try to play spoilers.

DFS Plays here: The Bills. All of them. Including the DST. Josh Allen Stacks – GO. Don’t sleep on the running game either #Analysis.

Other DFS Plays in this game:

Michael Carter $5,000 – 9% ownership

Jets DST $2,300 – no ownership

49ers vs RAMS

Lots of Playoff Implications here. First the Niners Clinch if they WIN and the Saints LOSE. The Rams win the NFC West with a win. I would expect fireworks in this game. Also big news Rams RB Cam Akers is active – will he see a big role here? Also Jimmy G looks to be back for the Niners! Additonally, Cooper Kupp is chasing history. Should mention too if both the Cardinals and Rams lose, the Rams still get the title … but let’s not talk about that.

I love Rams Stacks today, I love Niners Stacks today.

DFS Plays in this game:

Jimmy Garoppolo $5,500 – 4% ownership

Matthew Stafford $6,700 – 8% ownership

Cooper Kupp $9,700 – 22% Ownership

Deebo Samuel $8,500 – 5% ownership

Odell Beckham JR $5,800 – 4% ownership

Van Jefferson $5,100 – 3% ownership

Brandon Aiyuk $5,600 – 1% ownership

George Kittle $6,700 – 4% ownership

Tyler Higbee $4,000 – 8% ownership

Eli Mitchell $6,000 – 12% ownership

Sony Michel $6000 – 18% ownership

CAM AKERS! $4,700 – 2% ownership

Rams DST $3,100 – 2% ownership

Niners DST $2,900 – no ownership

PATRIOTS vs DOLPHINS

As a Patriots Fan I hate this game. South Florida in December for Northern Teams = voodoo hoodoo every time. If the Patriots win and the Bills lose, the Patriots reclaim the AFC East Title. But do to the hexing nature of this scenario (history is with me on this). I personally will be fading this game outside of the DSTs.

Can you tempt fate and play Mac or Tua or Damien Harris or Rhamondre Stevenson or Jalen Waddle or any player on either team. Sure. But this is is a complete avoid for me. That said – Go Pats! #Analysis

SEAHAWKS vs CARDINALS

I think when the NFL put this game on the schedule the headlines of RUSS vs KYLER were in their minds. However here in Week 18, Russ and the Seahawks are OUT of the playoffs. Meanwhile Kyler is locked in for a Playoff spot but he is playing to win. Why? Because if the Cardinals win and the Rams lose, than the Cardinals are the NFC West Champs. The problem is the Rams are also playing at 4:25 so Kyler will need to win this game to have a shot at the title. This could also potentially be Russell Wilson’s last game as a Seahawk. Pour one out for the legacy he leaves with this team.

This may surprise you, but I really don’t like much in this game. I think you can play Kyler in a stack with Christian Kirk or AJ Green or Zach Ertz. If James Connor plays he is probably my favorite play in this game as Chase Edmonds is out. I also think the Cardinals DST is viable. Run the Cardinals Stack back with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett or Rashad Penny. It’s a stay away spot for me though. Could that bite me in the a**? Yep, but I’ve made my peace with it.

PANTHERS vs BUCCANEERS

The Carolina Panthers are out. Tom Brady & the Buccaneers are NFC South Champs and locked at the 3 Seed, win lose or draw. They can lock up the #2 Seed with a win and a Rams Loss, but I would speculate that isn’t as much of a game plan focus as a nice feather in the cap if it happens. The Panthers have been a surprising solid defense all season. The Bucs’ defense has been hit or miss to put it nicely. The one thing I know about Tom Brady is he likes to go into the Playoffs with a season finale win … but I just am not confident we see Brady go a full game here – why risk it Tampa Bay? Additionally I think the same can be said with Mike Evans. Godwin is done for the season. AB is spectacularly out too. Brady – Evans will be a core need for the Buccaneers in the playoffs. Also Ronald Jones is out.

So why would Tom Brady risk injury to play this game? If he finishes top 5 in passer rating, he earns an additional $562,500. If he finishes Top 5 in completion percentage or yards, he earns another $562,500.

But the real potential winner here could be GRONK. If Gronk catches 7 Balls today, he earns $500,000. If he has 85 yards in this game he earns $500,000. If he catches 3 touchdowns in this game he earns $500,000. Bank on the potential 1.5 Million Dollar Man today.

DFS Plays in this game:

Tom Brady $7,500 – 3% owned

Sam Darnold $5,000 – no ownership

Ke’Shawn Vaughn $5,300 – 20% ownership

Chubba Hubbard $5,100 – no ownership

Mike Evans $7,100 – 2% ownership (only in Brady Stacks)

DJ Moore $5,800 – 16% ownership

Breshard Perriman $5,000 – no ownership

Tyler Johnson $4,200 – 1% ownership

Rob Gronkowski $6,300 – 7% ownership

Buccaneers DST $4,000 – 3% ownership

Panthers DST $2,500 – 2% ownership

GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS!

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