RDFHQ Dynasty Showdown: CeeDee Lamb vs. Justin Jefferson

We all know that Fantasy Twitter loves a good debate!  One that I’ve seen discussed before is CeeDee Lamb vs Justin Jefferson: who should be higher in Dynasty rankings?  Lamb was considered the best WR prospect from the 2020 class, but Jefferson had the better stats.  I decided to take a closer look at various factors to determine which one I would prefer going forward. Enjoy!

College Production

CD: CeeDee Lamb was a 4-star recruit out of High School that committed to the University of Oklahoma in 2016.  After a redshirt year, he recorded 807 receiving yards and 7 TDs in his first eligible season.  His final season as a Junior earned him All-American honors in 2019, after he exploded for over 1300 yards and 14 TDs with QB Jalen Hurts. 

3 YR College career totals:

REC173
YARDS3292
AVG19.0
TDS32

JJ: Justin Jefferson was a 3-star prospect and not highly recruited like Lamb was.  Fortunately, he had connections with LSU including two older brothers that had previously played for the Tigers and one of his childhood friends being the son of the LSU Head Coach at the time, Les Miles.  Despite not being the typical LSU recruit, he was still able to leverage his ties into a scholarship with them.  He only caught 1 ball as a Freshmen but cracked the starting lineup as a true Sophomore and put up a respectable 875 receiving yards.  The blow-up came his Junior season while playing with Joe Burrow: 111 receptions for 1540 yards and 18 TDs put him on the radar of every NFL team looking for WR help going into the 2020 Draft.

3 YR College career totals:

REC165
YARDS2415
AVG14.6
TDS24

Even though Lamb had an extra year as a starter, I still have to give him the nod over Jefferson for College Production because of his ability to get onto the field and produce as a Freshmen. 

Winner: CeeDee Lamb

NFL Production

CD: Lamb was the 3rd WR taken in the 2020 NFL Draft, pairing up with Dak Prescott in Dallas.  He spent most of his time lined up inside, setting the rookie record for receiving yards from the slot (877).  His 109 targets were just 17.7% of the team’s total targets. 

Lamb faced stiff competition for targets from Cooper and Gallup, which is even more reason to be impressed by his production.  His full season pace during the 5 games he played with Prescott (before his season-ending injury) was 92 receptions for 1,385 yards and 6 TDs.  Keep in mind that Dak was averaging a ridiculous 50.25 attempts per week through the 4 games that he finished, so I’m not going to expect these numbers from Lamb in ’21.  There is still plenty of upside for him though.

TGTS111
REC74
YARDS935
AVG12.6
TDS5

JJ: Similar to their college careers, Jefferson got off to a slower start than Lamb.  He ceded snaps to Olabisi Johnson in the first two weeks of the season (remember when Johnson was a concern for Jefferson managers in training camp?  Good times!).  In week 3, he was plugged into the starting lineup and thrashed the Titans with 175 receiving yards.  From that point, he went on to set the rookie record for receiving yards and quickly became a fantasy stud. 

Jefferson surprisingly played very few snaps out of the slot position, which is what most expected from him based on his college career.  He lined up on the outside for over 80% of snaps.  If we just look at the games where he started (weeks 3-17) his full season pace would be 94 receptions for 1,520 yards and 8 TDs. 

TGTS125
REC88
YARDS1400
AVG15.9
TDS7

Even though total # of routes run and target counts were similar for both rookies, Jefferson saw 500 more air yards than Lamb on the season so it’s understandable that the yardage totals look the way they do.  With that being said, Jefferson still had the more productive season by a wide margin.  This section is a clear win for the “Jet”. 

Winner: Justin Jefferson

Analytical Profiles

CD: Now, I want to dive in beyond the surface stats and really look at efficiency and surrounding factors.  As I mentioned before, Lamb mostly played as the Dallas slot WR and typically ran short to intermediate routes (9.1 average target distance was ranked 71st among WRs).  His 1.82 yards per route run ranked 43rd and he achieved an average of 1.56 yards of separation per target which was the 68th best.    

Fantasy-wise, Lamb ranked 39th in fantasy points per route run and 40th in fantasy points per target.  We also must consider that he dealt with subpar QB play for most of the season after Dak went down, which had a negative impact on his production.  Player Profiler gave his “Target Quality Rating” a 5.7 which ranked 56th among WRs. 

JJ: Jefferson earned a much higher target share than Lamb’s 17.7%, as he received 25.7% of the Vikings’ targets.  Adam Thielen was the only other legit receiving threat for Minnesota, so Jefferson was put in a great situation for opportunities.  Even as a rookie, he was one of the most efficient receivers in the NFL.  His 11.2 yards per target was 4th best and 2.66 yards per route run ranked him at #5 in that department. 

Looking at his fantasy output, he had the 7th most fantasy points per route run and ranked 14th in fantasy points per target.  His QB situation was much better than Lamb’s, as Kirk Cousins had the 9th best completion rate (67.6%) while putting together the best season of his career in 2020.  Jefferson’s “Target Quality Rating” was 6.6 (13th highest among WRs). 

Side-by-Side snapshot of the metrics that were discussed: *(credit to Player Profiler for stats)

LambJefferson
Target Share17.70%25.70%
Yds/target8.611.2
Yds/route run1.822.66
Target Quality Rating5.76.6
Fantasy pts/target1.922.16
Fantasy pts/route run0.410.51

Even though I’m sure that Lamb’s profile would look better if he played with Dak for the full season, I still have to give this one to Jefferson.  His efficiency levels were off the charts for a rookie WR and he did the most with the opportunity that was given to him.

Winner: Justin Jefferson

Final Thoughts

Based on this exercise, Justin Jefferson edges out CeeDee by a score of 2-1.  As I’ve mentioned several times, this might have gone differently if Dak didn’t dislocate his ankle midseason and force guys like Andy Dalton and Ben DiNicci to QB for the Cowboys.  Regardless of their situations, you have to give credit to Jefferson for his historical debut year.  While both guys are set to be future fantasy studs for years to come, Justin Jefferson has more Dynasty value in my opinion. 

The Patriots Come Out Guns Blazing! Signing Free Agency’s Top 2 Tight Ends Jonnu Smith And Hunter Henry

The tampering period for free agency is underway and some teams are firing right out of the gate to add to their team. The Patriots, coming into the start of the free agency period being one of the top 5 teams in salary cap space backed up the brinks truck to make moves early and didn’t look back. The Patriots went ahead with the big bank and signed Jonnu Smith, the former Tennessee Titans tight end to a 4-year deal worth $50 million dollars. Smith is also guaranteed $31.25 million dollars in the deal that works out to about $12.5 million a year. The new deal puts Jonnu Smith as the 3rd highest-paid tight end in the league.

The money truck didn’t stop there either. After scooping up Jonnu Smith on his contract, the Patriots went back to the tight end well and grabbed former Los Angeles Charger Hunter Henry. Henry signed on with the Patriots on a 3-year deal for $37.5 million dollars with $25 million guaranteed. I have to admit that the Patriots signing both TE’s was definitely giving me “Gronk/Hernandez 2.0” vibes.

The Breakdown

I can’t lie that I was a bit concerned about the Jonnu Smith signing and as fantasy owners, you would have to be too if you’ve been paying attention to the Patriot’s tight end situation over the last few seasons. It’s been a dark spot for fantasy (and reality for that matter) since the departure of Rob Gronkowski. Gronkowski spoiled us as fantasy owners for several seasons because of his production and his use in the red-zone with Tom Brady. Since 2015, Gronkowski was pumping out fantasy points and was able to finish no lower than 11th during that span. And yes, I’m not counting 2016 when he got hurt.

With two of the best tight ends landing in New England for Cam Newton, or whatever quarterback is the starter (my money is on Cam though), this could be the return of the two-tight end sets. Having Jonnu and Henry on the field at the same time would give Newton the best tight end tandem to work with. This could also work well with what the Patriots really like to do in terms of offense, using short to intermediate passes to move the ball up-field in concert with running the ball as opposed to just chucking it all over the place. The wide receivers on staff, including the signings of Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne don’t scream “let’s throw it deep all the time” to me. What it does tell me is that the Patriots are adding speed to the outside to help draw defenders away from the middle of the field and allow Smith and Henry to take advantage of mismatches against opposing defenses.

Fantasy Impact

I mentioned earlier that the tight end position has been a bit of concern since Rob Gronkowski retired back in 2019. Ryan Izzo and Matt LaCosse were not the answers as neither player had more than 13 catches in either 2019 or 2020. Adding legit pass catchers in Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, as well as paying them what they’re getting lends to the line that those guys will be the focal points in the Patriots offense. In 2020, the Patriots ran 12 personnel just 22 times totaling just 2% of the total play called as opposed to the 53% for the 11 personnel.

The Patriots wide receivers at the moment don’t seem like much to write home about right now either. Neither Agholor or Bourne have ever been number 1 wide receivers at any point in their careers. Even with the Patriots, its hard to see that change. While the Patriots could still add a number 1 type of receiver in the draft or free agency, right now it looks like the tight end position will be featured as one of the main aspects of the Patriots offense in 2021. It also fits well with Cam Newton at this point of his career too. Cam averaged 7.2 yards per attempt last season throwing to basically nothing. He also didn’t have great options in the red-zone. Now he gets two different tight ends with different strengths to boost the offense. Jonnu Smith is a YAC machine, averaging 5.8 yards after the catch with the Titans last season. He also averaged nearly 11 yards per catch too. Smith also averaged 1.75 yards per separation last season as well, ranking 5th among TE’s in 2020.

Hunter Henry isn’t a slouch either. Henry averaged about 8 yards in the aDOT category and ranked 11th among tight ends with a true catch rate of just over 88% and ranked 11th in contested catches with a 55.6% catch rate. I wouldn’t mind targeting either tight end during the fantasy draft. If I had to pick one, I’d probably go with Jonnu Smith over Hunter Henry and I think it comes down to who’s the better scorer when they get into the red-zone. Jonnu Smith had 9 touchdowns last season, 8 receiving, 1 rushing touchdown, and seems to be the more dangerous weapon inside the red-zone compared to Hunter Henry who scored 6 touchdowns.

Smith ranked 2nd overall inside the 20 among tight ends last season with Hunter Henry ranking 20th. Smith boasted a 61.1% catch rate on 11 of 18 passes and 68 yards. Conversely, Hunter Henry was ranked 20th overall among tight ends in the same category with 6 of 14 passes caught inside the 20, 27 yards, 4 touchdowns, and a 42.9% catch rate. In terms of fantasy value, it tells a different story. After the shakeup signings, Hunter Henry’s average draft position is actually higher than Jonnu Smith Hunter Henry currently sits at the 7.10 mark while Jonnu Smith is much lower, falling into the double-digit realm at the 11.06. If I don’t plan to reach for a tight end early, Smith is right where I would want to grab a tight end.

What do you think? Who would you target between Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry?

Dak Prescott Gets New Deal And What He Means For Fantasy Owners in 2021

Getty Images via CBSSports

What’s going on guys! A quick introduction before I go gaga over the Dak news for the article. I just recently joined on with the RDFHQ squad as a content contributor and I just wanted to say thanks for the opportunity to lend my fantasy talents to the site. This is going to be a fun experience and I want to not only make sure that you readers enjoy my content here but come away informed behind my perspective on things. I also want you guys to know that yes, I am a Cowboys fan so this flows right into my wheelhouse. One thing I’ve learned while playing fantasy football is that you can’t be bias. There’s always some value to find in fantasy, even if it comes from a rival squad.

You can follow me on Twitter (@hype_phinest) and you can see I do beef with NFC East rival fans but it’s largely all in fun. I mean, if you can’t talk trash in football and fantasy, what’s the point, right? I’ve gone on long enough though so let’s get into this news!

Continue reading “Dak Prescott Gets New Deal And What He Means For Fantasy Owners in 2021”

3 Players to Buy for a 3rd Round Rookie Pick

A rookie draft pick that “hits” is a player that goes on to produce at least one Top 24 (Top 12 for QB and TE) fantasy finish at their position.  Many studies have been conducted on rookie pick hit rates, but the estimated rate for 3rd round picks is about 10-12%.  That means that we can only expect to see 1-2 players picked in the 3rd round of dynasty rookie drafts to ever become fantasy relevant. 

During this time of the year, rookie hype is at an all-time high and most dynasty managers have already pegged their favorite late-round rookie sleepers.  Capitalize on this hype by offering mid to late 3rd round rookie picks for the following players that have either shown they can produce at a high level or already found themselves in a good situation:

Phillip Lindsay

The future seemed bright for Lindsay after he became the first Undrafted Free Agent RB to rush for 1,000+ yards in his first two seasons.  But the signing of free agent Melvin Gordon to a 2-year deal was a sign of bad things to come for the 3rd year back.  The team was verbally committed to Lindsay remaining a major part of the offense, but that was not the case in 2020.  While battling injuries, Gordon out-carried Lindsay 215-118 and Lindsay finished the year as RB65.

Despite a disaster 2020 season, there is some hope for Lindsay’s fantasy outlook.  Throughout the entire season, Lindsay battled various hip and knee injuries which clearly affected him on the field.   He posted his career lows in Yards per carry, Yards per target, and evaded tackles.  He still ranked 12th in big runs (20+ yards) and saw a 6.8% big run rate which was 5th best among RBs, so the speed is still there.  While Gordon will remain with the team in 2021, a healthy Lindsay should be able to establish a solid 1-2 punch.  The Broncos plan to tender Lindsay, who is a Restricted Free Agent, for 2021.  He will then become an Unrestricted Free agent in 2022.  Melvin Gordon might also be facing suspension to start next season as he currently deals with a DUI charge from last October. 

Quintez Cephus

Cephus plummeted down draft boards after he ran an abysmal 4.73.  Pair that with a mediocre production profile at Wisconsin and Cephus slipped into the 6th round of the 2020 NFL Draft.  He saw an immediate opportunity to get onto the field when Kenny Golladay missed Week 1 because of an injury.  Cephus played 80% of the snaps and saw 10 targets.  Unfortunately, we didn’t see much more of him throughout the year, other than a couple of splash plays.  He only saw 35 targets in his rookie campaign. 

Scouts liked his large frame, good hands and physical style of play but his overall athleticism has always been a question.  That sounds very similar to the Rams’ Cooper Kupp, who was the favorite target of new Detroit QB, Jared Goff:

 Cooper KuppQuintez Cephus
Height6’2”6’1”
Weight204 LBS202 LBS
Breakout Age20.220.4
Dominator Rating40.4%35.7%

Regardless of what happens with Kenny Golladay or the Draft, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola alone will vacate 184 targets from 2020.  Cephus will have a great opportunity to take over the “Big Slot” WR role and hopefully establish the same chemistry that Goff had with Kupp. 

Cole Kmet

Kmet was quiet to start 2020 while Jimmy Graham operated as the Bears’ top TE for most of the season.  Nagy finally came to his senses after their Week 11 bye and unleashed Kmet.  From that point, he saw an average of 5.5 targets/game which is a 16-game pace of 88 targets. That would have put him tied for 10th most among TEs in 2020.  Jimmy Graham is expected to be a cap casualty soon, with the Bears able to save $7 million by cutting him.  Cole Kmet would become an instant TE1 candidate once Graham is gone. 

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Superbowl Showdown – DFS Strategy & Picks – Chiefs Buccaneer – Brady Mahomes & YOU!

Well we have finally come to the end of the Covid Season and what a super showdown do we have on tap today. Oh to be a younger NFL Fan today. When I was younger the Superbowl was dominated by teams hundreds of miles from Foxboro and games that were largely over before they started. To have had a recent string of competitive Super Bowls over the last 6+ seasons has been a treat… but today’s offering of Da Big Game has the promise of something that all us DFSers love: A SHOOTOUT! No, not at the OK Corral and No not at Swarangens in Deadwood… no today’s shootout is primed to occur in the Sunshine state with Swashbucklin’ cannons and at least 10,000 witnesses live on hand.

Ok, hyperbole aside we do have a DFS Showdown slate to talk about. So let’s get down to business.

Lineup Construction and Contest Selection strategy:

When I think of this game and the Chiefs and Buccaneers I think it may be very easy to fall into the trap of Patrick Mahomes at Captain and one of either Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce in the Flex, paired with Brady and whichever Buc Wideout you can afford and maybe a cheap kicker. I would say 90% of lineups will look like that today – and why not? Patrick Mahomes is the highest projected player on the slate and rostering both Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will be cost prohibitive so you have to choose – right? Well I am not saying that is right or wrong but what I am saying is you need to think differently if you want to get a leg up on 90% of your competition.

The first bit of strategy I am going to employ is to Mass Multi Enter. I don’t usually talk or recommend what contests to put your money towards, but here I want to explain how I am and why. If you think of the Super Bowls of the past, think of all of the times a star rises from the crowd that at the start of the game the majority of the 20 million viewers at home are like – Who? Be it a Defensive Stud, a Wide Receiver, a Kicker … I think we all have memories of Super Bowls where someone stepped up. So while I am not saying to base a lineup on the past, what I am saying is multi entering (mass multi entering really) will allow me the room to have flexibility in some of my lineups that kinda get weird, while still allowing me to have a lineup with the headline studs… does that make sense? It also will allow me the chance to not just have Patrick Mahomes in my captain slot but have several lineups with a different captain.

Ownership is important in DFS but the one thing to keep in mind is with only one game – two teams – getting away from having some Chalk players in your lineup will be impossible. So you have to think more in terms of your construction in that landing on the right combination of Chalk vs lower owned players will be extremely tough to pinpoint in a single entry or even a 3 entry max. So my first advice here is to consider your bank roll and consider mass multi entering and give yourself more ability to cover the field. I will help you here with picks to help you build from but if you can afford it, I recommend mass multi-entering and creating variance. The reality is that if indeed 90% of the field will construct a lineup with Mahomes, Hill or Kelce, Brady, Cheapest Buc pass catcher and Kicker and only 5 of your 20 linueps look like that, but the other 15 are built differently – the leverage those other 15 lineups have given you could be the difference between cashing or not… If you have further questions on this approach send me a DM @DelRayBoston

THINK DIFFERENTLY:

DFS is tough and most people do not win money. Let’s get that out in the open. I am currently on a NBA losing streak that makes me want to pack it in and give it up. But if you love the thrill of a DFS Contest like I do – you can’t give up! As long as it doesn’t bankrupt you in the process I mean.

So when I say think differently, the first thing to do is to think back as much as you can at losing lineups that you thought were going to be winners and think about how you could have built that lineup differently. Maybe you thought I need to build this lineup so I am not just playing all of the Chalk players and you went real deep on value targets that you thought carried no ownership, to the point that you sacrificed high scoring targets that ultimately you may have needed to cash. Or maybe you built a lineup where it was all chalk and you ended up winning $1.00 because 6,300 players all had the same lineup and you all split 56th place. You can go back to past contests right in Draft Kings and FanDuel and you can see the results … spend a minute and do that today. Look at past Showdown Lineups you built and then look at the winners of those contests. See what they did that you didn’t. Sometimes when you do that you will see something you missed. Yes there is a lot of luck in DFS – it’s gambling after all… but if you employ a strategy not just of thinking differently against the field but against yourself, you could find lineup construction today to be a lot more fun and hopefully more profitable.

So who says you can’t roster both Tyreek Hill AND Travis Kelce in the same lineup? A podcast you listen to every week? A pundit who tells you that it is impossible for both guys to have mega performances at the same time in the same game? Well let me give you permission to buck that line of thinking. What if you have Tyreek and he puts on another 3 touchdown 200 yard performance – but Kelce also had 90 yards and a touchdown and not having the combination of the two lost you money? Are you going to tell me that couldn’t happen? If 90% of lineups have one or the other – I want to have both. Am I eating chalk here – yes, but in this case eating MORE chalk made me different.

Who says you can’t build a lineup with a Buccaneers Domination theme? Brady, 2 of 3 wide receivers, Fournette AND Jones? Again did you hear it somewhere or read it somewhere that you shouldn’t? Listen if 90% of lineups have Mahomes at Captain I want to have at least one with Brady in that spot – don’t you? And look at how the Buccaneers have been playing recently. Brady has at least 3 touchdowns in like five of his last 6 and by the way – the Chiefs over the last half of the season have fielded the WORST Red Zone Defense in the league coming into this game. They have more wins with 1 touchdown or less lead than the Atlanta Falcons all season. Are you going to tell me that the Chiefs and the Falcons are the same caliber team? If you believe that I have some ocean front property in Iowa to sell you. So seriously – be different, build a Buccaneers domination lineup and don’t be afraid of it.

And who says that this game is going to shoot out? Well I did but that isn’t my point. Vegas has this line at 56 and the Chiefs at 3. The last time these two teams met the Chiefs won 27-24 so if you do the math in essence Vegas is giving the Chiefs 4 more points… so what if the UNDER HITS? Seriously if you are mass multi entering like I am, you need to have think this way. As a safety net I’ll have a couple lineups with a Kicker at Captain and for certain a few lineups with the Defense in a stack with an opposing kicker … is it likely we see a defensive struggle for 4 quarters? No … but in case we do, be prepared. Most players in your contest will not… I can guarantee that.

Last bit of advice here – I think it is paramount that you have both Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady in your lineup, somehow. You have two quarterbacks that ultimately run their offenses, two offenses that are high powered and can beat you in many ways. I think fading one over the other is going to be a mistake. If you are multi entering I am not saying every lineup needs to look like that, but if you had a gun to my head and asked me to predict what the winning lineup of the Millionaire Maker looks like, my best guess would be a lineup with both quarterbacks rostered. Using Brady in the Captain spot and Mahomes in the flex is the way I will attack this mostly, for what it’s worth.

INJURIES AND VALUE

My last bit of strategy to talk about here before I get into picks is using injury news to your advantage. This carries over to not just injuries but likely scenarios we could see play out today due to news we have advantage of knowing.

The BuccaneersAntonio Brown and Cameron Brate are both questionable and while both are expected to play after logging practices this week, the thing to note here is how much are they expected to play? I find it hard to believe that the Bucs will throw AB out as a decoy to open up lanes but it is possible. The reports are that he is still not operating at 100%. So while I am not saying fade AB here, what I think is important to NOT do is to chase Scotty Miller or Tyler Johnson if you are worried about AB’s condition. While I think it is a good idea to sprinkle some Miller and/or Johnson in a few lineups if you are mass multi-entering, I wouldn’t do it at the expense of not rostering AB – unless Brown is ruled out entirely. Tom Brady loves Antonio Brown and if he is out there, don’t think for a second Brady won’t try to give Brown a Super Bowl moment… so just don’t fall into the trap of thinking he is a decoy and you need one of the other guys (Miller or Johnson) to cash….

The Cameron Brate news though does have more implications I think. If you have already looked at the slate Draft Kings has Rob Gronkowski at ONLY $3,000. If Brate was out, I would have hit the lock button on Gronk in a hot minute. But the reality is that Brate over the last 4 games has run more routes than Gronk, out targeted Gronk 4 to 1 and has been a go to target for Brady. Now same mentality regarding Tom Brady and Gronk as it is to Brady and Brown. Tom Brady and Gronk’s relationship runs deep and if you don’t think Brady would love to give Gronk one more reason to spike the ball in the endzone in the Superbowl, well have I told you about my ocean front property for sale yet? My point here is that with Brate in, Gronk can’t be seen as a lock even at that ridiculously cheap price. The Bucs have been using Gronk for run blocking a lot recently and anything can happen – but I think if you are multi-entering Brate is as important as Gronk even at $1,200 more on DK. There is only a $500 difference between the two on FanDuel so this isn’t as much of an issue. Either way – keep in mind, the Chiefs have been torched by Tight Ends all season long and in their first meeting Gronk had 6 catches for 106 yards. I would keep a Tampa Bay Tight End in your player pool for sure today … or both of them.

The Chiefs – The big name to keep an eye on is Sammy Watkins. Watkins is expected to suit up for this game but will he also play a significant role – it remains to be seen. This could be Sammy Watkins last game with the Chiefs – it could be his last game period too. The oft injured Watkins has contemplated shelving the cleats. So there is emotion attached to this news here. We have seen time and time again one game per season is the Sammy Watkins game – could that be today? I don’t know but with the news circling him, it seems unlikely that he sees a full compliment of snaps. We won’t know for sure until around 5PM. Why this matters is directly tied to the age old question on the Chiefs. Who else do we roster other than Mahomes, Hill and Kelce? If Watkins is out I will have a lot of Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson and a sprinkle of Byron Pringle. Most people will gravitate to Hardman but I am going to make a rule I only use Hardman in lineups without either Hill or Kelce and that I have some lineups with Hardman and the Chiefs defense stacked in the event there is a kick return touchdown. I do not think it is a good idea to ignore Demarcus Robinson however. We have seen Robinson be the right man at the right time for Mahomes more than once and could this be a Demarcus Robinson Superbowl? Weirder things have happened. I wouldn’t roster Hardman and Robinson in the same lineup – but I don’t mind rostering Robinson with either Hill or Kelce and in this case I prefer lineups WITH Tyreek Hill. The Buccaneers have a soft spot in their secondary and especially have been beaten by the long ball. So even if Watkins is in, I don’t mind Hardman or Robinson but if he is out or limited I think both guys carry a little more priority. If we get news that Watkins is playing and starting, I likely won’t have much for any of the other three – minus the Hardman stacks with the Chiefs Defense I mentioned. If this is indeed Watkins swan song on this team, I could see Patrick Mahomes looking to send him home happy. So like I said – pay attention to this Sammy Watkins news.

My Captain/MVP Picks

If I am playing a Chief at Captain I think you may assume that Patrick Mahomes is my priority. After all in week 12 against Tampa Bay, Mahomes dropped 482 Yards on this team and 3 touchdowns completing 37 of 49 passes enroute to 35.3 Fantasy Points. Now am I saying that will happen again – no, but it certainly could! The thing is though 269 of those yards went to Tyreek Hill as did all 3 of Mahomes’ Touchdowns. Mama Mia. It makes me lean towards Hill as my favorite Chiefs captain. It is not like Tampa Bay’s secondary has improved right? Well … the thing to keep in mind is that the strategy that Tampa Bay must imploy is how do we keep Patrick Mahomes on the sideline and if they are successful at that it could severely hamper either Mahomes or Hill from having those monster performances. So while I like Mahomes and Hill a lot in this matchup, my favorite Chief Captain pick is Travis Kelce. On both sites Kelce is more expensive than Hill, so because of that I think he will be the least popular of the 3. But look at Kelce’s last 8 games and you can just see how much this offense is running through him. Since week 11 he has gone over 100 yards receiving 5 of 8 games and more notably less than 80 yards only once. Additionally, he has had at least one touchdown in 7 of the 8 games, with 2 in the victory over Buffalo in the AFC Championship. The only game in that stretch that the Thor didn’t score was against the Buccaneers. I like the odds of Kelce getting that missing touchdown back today, maybe even twice. The Bucs come into this game 16th against Tight Ends for what it’s worth.

If you are mass multi entering I don’t mind looking at a lineup with Watkins (if he plays), Hardman or Robinson at Captain/MVP if you want to be different and save some salary, but when you do that you run the risk of multiplying 7 – 10 points by 1.5 and sacrificing multiplying 20 – 30 points by 1.5 by not rostering Mahomes, Hill or Kelce in the spot. So my advice to you if you do go the route of a cheap secondary receiver at the top spot that you use that salary savings to stack you flex spots as much as possible.

The two most interesting low owned Chiefs captains though that I will have in my player pool are Clyde-Edwards Helaire and Harrison Butker. In the case of CEH no one is going to roster him at Captain. The Buccaneers run defense is too good and his usage is too low – right? Well yes, but for me this is the exact type of game script I want to attack in a showdown especially one in the Superbowl. Do I think we see CEH run for 120 yards? Probably not. Do we think he will catch 80 yards? Hmm, unlikely… but is there a real chance he takes 1 or 2 touchdowns to the house from the goal line? Definitely possible. So don’t let the the narratives scare you. If you are multi-entering, having a lineup or two of CEH at Captain definitely interests me. For Harrison Butker it’s just simple math. The Chiefs won by a field goal in Week 12. Vegas is basically giving the Chiefs 4 more points today to get to the 56 mark. That is a field goal and an extra point. If Butker kicks two or three field goals and delivers on 2 or 3 more extra points, he is well worth a nod on at least one lineup at Captain for me.

On the other side of the ball, I love Tom Brady at Captain. First he is the fourth most expensive player on the slate which is ideal for a little variance rostering him over Mahomes, Hill or Kelce at Captain. Second Brady threw for 345 and 2 against this team in week 12, so really right behind Mahomes in that regard and if it wasn’t for the two picks he threw, he also would have cracked 30 Fantasy Points. Interceptions have been a problem for Brady, but Touchdowns have been a problem for his opponents. Since week 14 Brady has thrown 2 or more Touchdowns in EVERY GAME. Why are you going to consider fading that at Captain. If he can throw even close to the yardage in Week 12 and have 2 or more Touchdowns and no interceptions today … he makes an EXCELLENT Pivot from the more chalky Chiefs at the top spot.

If I am not going Brady, I think my next favorite Buc is Leonard Fournette. It has been clear that Fournette has taken over this backfield with 12 or more carries over the last 3 weeks and a touchdown or more in every game since week 15. He also has averaged 4 catches per game in that span. The Chiefs are 21st against the run and have been gouged by dominant running backs all season. With Brady the focus of the defense I could see a lot of check downs going Fournette’s way and I could see Fournette having a nice game on the ground as well. In Week 12 Ronald Jones went 9 for 66 and caught a 37 yard pass for a score. If Fournette has taken over this role, I don’t think it’s a far stretch to say he could match or surpass that.

You also can’t talk Bucs captains without mentioning Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. I think if you are playing Cash Lineups Godwin is your guy, but I love Evans for Tournaments. The Red Zone upside Evans carries against the worst redone defense in the league coming into this game, is too much to pass up. We have seen Evans with multiple touchdown games numerous times this season and I wouldn’t be surprised at all of it happens here. It isn’t to say I don’t like Godwin a lot – I do – but I think his target share and yardage are safer play in cash. My biggest piece of analysis here on Evans and Godwin is ownership. Both Evans and Godwin are priced in that range where you could go up for Brady, Hill or you could go down for Fournette, Antonio Brown. Which I think will keep their ownership in check and that is where I like to attack in Showdowns.

I also think if you are multi entering, having at least one lineup with the Buccaneers Defense at Captain isn’t crazy. The Bucs are at home and they have been playing great football recently defensively. Can anyone fully stop Patrick Mahomes, no … but if they can shut down the run and bottle neck the pass. the Bucs have as much of a shot as anyone at sacks, fumbles, interceptions and I don’t think it’s crazy to have at least one lineup telling that story. And when you play Patrick Mahomes it is always smart to have the opposing Kicker on at least one lineup as Captain/MVP – the thought being that teams want to keep pace however they can and that means field goals are better than a goose egg in the red zone. So Ryan Succup – Please Stand Up, Please Stand Up.

Flex, Flex, Flex it Up!

As always – anyone I mentioned above is firmly in play for me in the flex. I want to mention that if you are new to this article but it is a way for me not to mention a player twice and waste time.

The common theme people will build around is a domination of one team over the other but I am more inclined to think that balanced builds win Superbowl tournaments. So make sure you are stacking your quarterbacks with your favorite target for them and filling your lineup with the most potential points that you think could happen. If you think Demarcus Robinson catches more balls and has more yardage than Harrison Butker, than play him. If you think Patrick Mahomes goes out and lights up the field and throws another 200 yard game to Tyreek Hill, but maybe roster Mike Evans or Chris Godwin at captain so you can have some salary left over to still use on more likely point scorers and not going full Stars and Scrubs with your lineups.

I think the only player that I haven’t talked about already is Ronald Jones. Yes I like Fournette at Captain, I also like Jones as a Flex Play. He is too cheap on Draft Kings and no one is better at breaking a 60 yard score out of nowhere than RoJo. So he is firmly in my player pool as a Flex but I fear his lack of volume will keep him out of Captain consideration for me. I also think Jones is more of a Tournament play than cash play due to the volatility. I also want to mention another favorite low owned tournaments play for me is Darrel Williams who sees enough snaps to warrant consideration here. Especially as a pass catcher and change of pace I think Williams should be in consideration and especially if Sammy Watkins plays I like him over Hardman or Robinson from a low ownership high upside standpoint.

If Sammy Watkins and Antonio Brown Sit, I would rank the options available like this for Flex Consideration:

Mecole Hardman

Tyler Johnson

Scotty Miller

Demarcus Robinson

Byron Pringle

Last bit of flex strategy to think about is lineups that favor a positive game script for one team over the other (aka Domination lineups). I think it is a common trap for a lot of DFS players to say – I think the Chiefs will dominate this game and load their lineups with Chiefs players … but the reality as we saw in Week 12, the dominating Chiefs performance really came from only 2 guys – Mahomes and Hill. So for me, if I am building a lineup with the game script of a Chiefs domination than I want my lineup to be chalk full of Buccaneers as they will be needing to play catch up ball and minimally with the Chiefs. Or vice versa. Does this make sense? THINK DIFFERENTLY

Here are some example lineups for you that I built this morning:

DRAFT KINGS

Captain: Tyreek Hill

Flex: Patrick Mahomes

Flex: Demarcus Robinson

Flex: Tom Brady

Flex: Chris Godwin

Flex: Ronald Jones

FAN DUEL

MVP: Mike Evans

Flex: Tom Brady

Flex: Patrick Mahomes

Flex: Mecole Hardman

Flex: Antonio Brown

GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS and THANK YOU for reading Real Deal Fantasy DFS all season long! PS I’m serving St Louis Ribs and Skyline Chili (homemade) today – how about you?! Tweet me your Superbowl Spread @DelRayBoston! I’ll be sharing pics of mine at Kick Off!

AFC Championship Showdown – DFS Strategy & Picks – Bills Chiefs

This is my second of two showdown articles for today’s championship games. These articles are intended to be a compendium to the main DFS Article that I published yesterday. If you need a quick link to check that article out first for my drill down on both games and the key players here is a link: https://tinyurl.com/ChampionshipDFS

And if you would like to check out my NFC Championship Showdown article follow this link here: https://tinyurl.com/NFCChampionshipDFS

It’s time for Prime Time … Resining Superbowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs hosting the new kid on the block after 25 years – the Buffalo Bills! Anyone who thinks it is foregone conclusion that Kansas City will win should go back and rewatch this season. This Bills team is dangerous and Patrick Mahomes is coming off a concussion? maybe? Anyway this has the makings of a shootout for the ages and I cannot wait to see how my lineups fare – can you?

This game has an implied point total of 53.5 and the Chiefs are favored by 3.

My Captain/MVP Picks

In the NFC Matchup (if you read that article) you know I went off the grain, off the reservation, for my picks at Captain and MVP but here in this matchup I think I’m going to be as main stream as white bread on 1960’s color television.

Stefon Diggs – If you read my Main Slate Article you will know I really love Stefon Diggs today. As I said in that article, he has gone above the status of #1 Wide Receiver for Josh Allen. He is a dependency when you look at the target share, overall usage and routes – this guy has been the catalyst to this team and tough matchup or not he delivers. Since week 5 Diggs has only dipped below 9 or more targets one time. Especially after the bye week he has gone 92 or more yards in 6 of 8 and of those 6 performances in four of them he has gone for over 120 yards. He has 6 Touchdowns over that span too. Yes he is pricey and yes he is chalky at 47% ownership, but I love Diggs at Captain and I’ll look to be contrarian elsewhere in my lineup.

Travis Kelce it is tough to say, really, if it is Travis Kelce or Tyreek Hill that is Patrick Mahomes’ #1 target … but tonight I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Kelce gets the nod. In the first matchup with the Bills in Week 6 he went for 65 yards and two scores. Since that matchup though Kelce has failed to see 10 or more targets only twice. Including the two week 6 scores Kelce has 10 touchdowns on the season including post season play and the Bills by the way the 3rd WORST team against the tight end position. Yes he will be Chalk but I will eat it, like it and be different elsewhere in my lineup. Play Travis Kelce.

Josh Allen I rarely write about using a quarterback at Captain or MVP but in this case I think it is a smart move. Whether the Bill’s are in the lead or they are playing catchup they are throwing. The Bill’s throw on first and second down in neutral and positive game scripts nearly higher than any other team and certainly more than any other team still playing football. On top of that if you read my last article the QB rushing comparison isn’t even really a competition. 7 Rushing TDs on the season for Allen and nearly 500 yards. Gunslinger yes – but more importantly he is an opportunist who is showing more and more his willingness to take chances and calculated risks to win games. If that doesn’t inspire you as a Captain I don’t know what would.

Now my Captain/MVP Picks aren’t all chalk… I do have four Contrarian Picks for you to consider as well. Salary Savers, Dart Throws, Leverage Plays.

Salary Saver Draft Kings: Dawson Knox. The big tight end is a favorite for Josh Allen especially in the red zone. That little flip flop and fly touchdown last week will be replayed for years … the Bills may be 4th worst team against tight ends but the Chiefs are the 3rd worst. $4,400 on DK. Pricey on FanDuel at $7,500 though

Dart Throw Chiefs: Demarcus Robinson Sammy Watkins is expected to miss and while Mecole Hardman led the second wide receiver group in catches, DRob here led the group in snaps and routes – 71% of offensive snaps to be exact. A Player that will be running that many routes with Patrick Mahomes under center could break out at any time in a game. I don’t mind a roster with DRob at the top. He’s cheap too.

Dart Throw Bills: John Brown why is he a dart throw as the technical wide receiver 2? Easy – he has done very little and in fact did nothing in his return last week. Smoke is a popular value saver on the main slate but at sub 20% in Showdowns I don’t mind a shot here. At one time he was the talk of the town after all.

Leverage Play: Mecole Hardman the highest owned player on this slate is without question Tyreek Hill at close to 60%. Last week with Sammy Watkins out, Hardman caught 4 passes for 58 and nearly had a score. Watkins is expected out again and at 6% projected ownership give me all of a cheap low owned Hardman. Sneaky especially if you have the Chiefs Defense in your lineup if Hardman runs a kick back too.

Leverage Play: Cole Beasley while still chalky at 26% he is projected at HALF of the ownership of Stefon Diggs and we have seen in tight windows Allen looks for Beasley. In the Bill’s 27-24 win over the Colts he saw 7 targets. In their 26-15 victory over the Steelers Defense he saw 10. And in the 30-32 shootout against Arizona, Beasley saw a season high 13 targets. I like the leverage Beasley brings to this slate

AND MY DARK HORSE: Clyde Edwards-Helaire. At 30% ownership in Showdown I’d like to think that maybe my Main Slate DFS Article had some influence. CEH is expected to play today and Lev Bell is expected to sit. To me it is all about the question – has the running back position in this offense been minimized only because Clyde the Glide wasn’t on the field? We shall see… but always remember, Clyde was drafted on Patrick Mahomes’ recommendation and also the Bills allow 120+ yards on the ground and are ranked 21st against the position. No one will see it coming that CEH runs roughshod but if it happens – I’ll be there with him at Captain/MVP sitting pretty.

Flex, Flex, Flex it Up

As I mentioned in my NFC Article if you are new to this article – anyone I mentioned above is in play for me as a Flex as well. I just want to make that clear, while not writing about the same player twice.

Like the NFC Championship game I do think it will prove important to have both Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes in your lineups. By the way it isn’t that I am down on Patrick Mahomes in this matchup, but I prefer him in the flex as I think the Bills are going to play him tough and while I do think he will score touchdowns, I am not convinced we are looking at a 300 – 400+ yard game from Pattie M. In Week 6 in a winning effort Mahomes only threw for 225. But he did have two touchdowns, both the Travis Kelce, so when playing Mahomes the stack with Kelce is a bit of a priority for me. I will have a lineup or two with Mahomes at Captain/MVP but it isn’t one of my priority plays there.

As I mentioned, Tyreek Hill is the unquestioned highest owned player on this slate and why not. When Hill has seen 10 or more targets this season he has gone for over 100 yards or a touchdown or both. That is pretty incredible on a team that has the reputation of spreading the ball around more so than perhaps any other team in the league. In Week 6 Hill actually had a rushing score and did very little receiving damage and that is always an advantage. While I don’t necessarily like Hill at Captain/MVP I think it is a smart play to find a way to him in the Flex. His massive ownership aside, I think a stack with Mahomes in the Flex on lineups that don’t include Kelce is a smart play. By the way it isn’t that I think stacking Hill and Kelce can’t deliver, it is more about the salary cost of having Mahomes-Kelce-Hill together and what else you will be able to fill your lineup with. Likely that triple stack will be popular and you will land on a lot of the same plays as your competition. You need to think differently. It is ok to leave money on the table in Showdowns by the way… you may have heard me say that before all season long.

Additionally on the Chiefs side I think Darrel Williams and Byron Pringle should be in your player pool for low owned Chiefs Flex Plays. Without Lev Bell on the field, it will be CEH and Williams mainly in the backfield and Williams has been an adept pass catcher when called upon. Pringle saw some targets last week from Mahomes with Watkins off the field so a dart throw yes but a cheap and low owned one, I will take. If you really want to go deep on Chiefs, running back Darwin Thompson may see snaps as a change of pace behind CEH and Williams. He is a deeper dart throw for me than Pringle though, so keep that in mind.

On the Bills side, keep an eye on Gabriel Davis‘ status. He is looking like a game time decision but if he can play, I like him as a cheap low owned Bill with a lot of upside. If he cannot play I think Isiah McKenzie should be in your player pool for the same reasons.

I haven’t spoken much about Devin Singletary here but as much as I am not a Singletary truther, I think he is in play for showdowns. With Zack Moss on IR, Singletary saw nearly all of the running back work last week and now he is in a great matchup against the Chiefs who we have been playing running backs against all season. The issues I have with Singletary is usage. Since Week 16 Singletary has COMBINED for 20 touches over 4 games which for a RB1 is extremely low over a 4 games span. He does see work as a receiver though so I do like that flexibility. He is cheap and he is chalky at over 40% ownership but he is in play as a flex I think just for the opportunity.

In these championship matchups I think both kickers Tyler Bass (Bills) and Harrison Butker (Chiefs) need to be in your player pool. In Week 6 Bass had 2 Field Goal attempts and 2 Extra Point Attempts while Butker matched him in Field Goals and had one more Extra Point. But with both teams playing at a different level here in the AFC Championship and anything can happen. Kickers are in play.

Same goes for Defenses. Sacks, Fumbles, Interceptions, Safetys, Kick Returns – it’s the playoffs baby anything can go down. So I’d say stacking a defense with an opposing kicker is fine, but I also like the Defenses as a part of a 4 or 5 man onslaught stack on some lineups. Plus I mentioned the bonus of stacking the Chiefs D and Mecole Hardman but and even sneakier one is with the Bills D and Andre Roberts who is cheap and carries 1% ownership. You have to think differently here and there is a couple ways to do it on a lineup or two.

Good Luck in your Contests!

NFC Championship Showdown – DFS Strategy & Picks – Packers Buccaneers

This is my first of two showdown articles for today’s championship games. These articles are intended to be a compendium to the main DFS Article that I published yesterday. If you need a quick link to check that article out first for my drill down on both games and the key players here is a link: https://tinyurl.com/ChampionshipDFS

Ok so let’s get into the Showdown slate for the NFC Championship between the Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Game has an expected point total of 51 and the Packers are favored by 3.5 points. Let’s go

My Captain/MVP Picks

It may seem against the grain but I don’t have a lot of interest in either Aaron Rogers or Tom Brady as my Captain/MVP. I am going to prefer to lean on matchups and expected production so my first picks may surprise you:

Buccaneers Running Backs: I just think the way the Buccaneers are using both Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones is lining up too nicely against a Packers defense that a). ranks 25th against running backs and b). are allowing over 100 yards on the ground. I think also with Leonard Fournette really claiming the pass catching back role in this offense and with Antonio Brown out he has a great opportunity to perform in the Captain/MVP role. However he is popular today – nearly 60% ownership in Showdowns. So why not look at Ronald Jones? He is projected at less than half of Fournette’s ownership and the last time RoJo played the pack he took them for 113 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. The other reason I like the Buccaneers running backs for Captain/MVP is the sheer ridiculous ownership that Aaron Jones is seeing – close to 80% ownership in Showdowns. Holy smokes. Be different here.

Buccaneers Receivers: Chris Godwin in particular jumps out from a usage standpoint and as a red zone target. Godwin has seen since week 11 he has seen 7 or more targets in 5 of 8 games and has 6 touchdown catches in that span. He is cheaper than Evans on Draft Kings and more expensive on Evans on FanDuel. So Godwin would be my Draft Kings pick. Evans is the wild card and honestly I love wild cards in tournaments especially in showdown. In any game Evans could end up with 60 yards and 2 scores and win you a week. Or he could bust. But with no AB on the field, this could be a Mike Evans showcase week waiting to happen. The slight discount on FanDuel has me leaning his way.

Packers Secondary Receivers: Davante Adams is highest owned Wide Receiver on the slate by a mile (76%) and the second highest owned player overall behind Aaron Jones. In this matchup against the Bucs, Adam’s ownership makes tons of sense to me – but for Captain/MVP I want a home run ball and we have seen both Alan Lazard (last week) and Marquez Valdez Scantling (two weeks ago) deliver those. Both are touchdown dependent yes but so is Mike Evans to a certain degree and both the Lizard King and MVS are cheaper and are running just as many routes as Evans is in a more efficient offense. Who do I like better? Well you can ride the hot hand with Alan Lazard at 11% ownership or you could take the lottery ticket MVS at 3% ownership… the choice my friends is yours.

Robert Tonyon: Big Rob is due for a Touchdown catch. He closed the regular season with a TD in 6 Touchdowns in his last 7 games. 5 of them came on back to back to back to back to back weeks. He hasn’t had one in the playoffs yet and it may be an emotional play here but at home in the championship game, doesn’t it just feel good to think Tonyon – TD once or twice? He is seeing around 25% ownership but I do not think that is due to people rostering him at Captain on DK. Perhaps at MVP on FanDuel it is a bit more because his price is $2,100 less than on DK (yes take advantage). I like Tonyon.

Kickers: Ryan Succup (Bucs) Mason Crosby (Pack) will be in play today. It will be cold in Lambeau. Maybe even a flurry. Not every ball will be on target and not every red zone drive will end in a touchdown. I think the big thing here is that the Bucs have been decent defense particularly up front and the Packers have been playing decent defense on a whole since the start of the playoffs. I always roster at least one lineup with each Kicker as Captain on DK. They are always cheap and low owned. I do the same with one roster for each defense on DK. You just never know.

Aaron Jones!

It is not that I am down on Aaron Jones the player, I am just down on the matchup against the Buccaneers defense that has been lights out against running backs nearly all season long. Yes I know last week he played another strong rushing defense and shocked the world with a 60 yard touchdown run to start the second half out of no where. But you are betting on lightning striking twice here rostering a player with near 80% ownership. I’d rather bet on Aaron Rogers finding Alan Lazard deep for a 60 yard score again. Now I have heard and seen the idea that the Buccaneers Defense will flip the script and try and lock down Aaron Rogers and Davante Adams and leave the running game wide open? REALLY? You play with the cards that brought you to the dance. No way. I will say now, I will have a lineup with Aaron Jones at Captain and one with him at MVP. Yes. I will also have some Aaron Jones exposure in my flex spots – some – not 80% of them.

This article has and always will be to get you guys to start thinking about your lineup construction differently. If Aaron Jones busts and you took the chance on not rostering him, you just gained an advantage on 80% of the field that has him. How does he bust? The Bucs front holds up. The carousel of Jones, Williams, Dillon continues to be a carousel. The Packers trail by 2 scores and Rogers is slinging… guys it could happen. 80% ownership on a player in a less than stellar matchup is a huge risk if you stop to think about it. Yes I will have some Aaron Jones but not a lot. That’s just me though, you do you.

Flex, Flex, Flex it Up

As always or if you are new to this article, anyone mentioned above in my Captain/MVP section is in play for me in the flex spot too. I don’t want to write twice about a player here…

I think it is a wise play to find a way to having both Tom Brady and Aaron Rogers in your flex spots. It isn’t a must by any stretch but hear me out. One of three scenarios will play out here. First one: The Packers efficiently move the ball and score at will, where having Aaron Rogers and likely Davante Adams stacked will be a must. But in that scenario Tom Brady will need to be throwing to keep pace, so having Brady and one of his primary pass catchers in the lineup will also be vital to success. Second scenario: This is a literal shootout with whoever has the ball last wins and points rack up like a winning pull on a slot machine. In this scenario having as much of both offenses as you can will be vital. That starts with Brady and Rogers. Third scenario: The Buccaneers shock the world and put the Packers on their heels. Again you will want to have a piece of Tom Brady’s touchdown passes and Rogers and Adams to play catch up ball.

In order to have Brady+Rogers+Adams + Godwin or Evans in your flex you will need to ride cheap at Captain on DK. We gave you some cheaper options. Then you will need to fill in the gaps. So here’s my gap fillers list…

Scotty Miller – $1,800 on DK, Miller is the technical wide receiver 4 and although he hasn’t really broken out in this offense with AB out, Brady could be looking for the shifty Miller early here. Sleeper watch.

Cameron Brate – $4,400 on DK has seen 11 Targets from Brady in the playoffs with Antonio Brown on the field, now that AB is off I’d expect that to maintain or rise.

Rob Gronkowski – $4,200 on DK. Touchdown or Bust yes but still Gronk is a trusted Brady ally on the field and these two have made magic together in Championship games in the past.

Jamaal Williams – $2,200 on DK. Especially in lineups without Aaron Jones, Williams is an adept pass catcher and you never know if he may be the right guy at the right time in the Red Zone. To a lesser extent AJ Dillion here at only $1,200 on DK who is a dart throw but you never know what those tree trunk legs can do to a stiff defensive line until you try.

Equanimeous St. Brown – Say that name 3 times fast. Seriously the wide receiver saw action last week and again this is a Championship game and if it gets into a dog fight, any long catch and run or long touchdown pass will do. $1,000 on DK.

Tyler Johnson – when AB went out last week it was Ty Johnson stepping into his routes. Ty Johnson may be the sleeper pick of the week if he is indeed playing the AB role in this offense. Only $800 on DK. Not at all a bad pick for at least one lineup with Ty Johnson at Captain. The things you could do with the rest of that lineup…

Marcedes Lewis – Touchdown or Bust, yes – but Aaron Rogers has an affinity for “The Big Man” as he has called him in interviews and in prime time in big games he is 2 for 3 in Touchdown catches in the redzone. I’ll have one roster with Lewis in it for only $400 on DK.

Good Luck in your Contests!!

NFL Conference Championship DFS Strategy & Picks – Bills Chiefs – Bucs Packers – Two Games, Big Wins!

As much as I love the divisional round for DFS, it was in the NFC Championship game that I had my biggest win in a DFS Tournament back in 2015 and honestly it was that win that has kept me hooked on DFS since. Blessing? Curse? Maybe a little of both …

What is amazing about the Conference Championships here is that they are both on one day, which makes for an incredible feeling when you are playing a DFS Tournament. Two general scenarios prove this point. First is the even flow lineup with pieces of each team and each game locked in. If you picked correctly in the first game and are in a position to cash, you anxiously await the remaining studs in your lineup to take the field in the second game and to take you home and send you home happy. The second scenario is that you build your lineup extremely heavy on one game or the other (most likely the game that you think will deliver the most fantasy points) and so you are really on edge watching the game you largely ignored hoping that what you built will be enough to cash.

While the advantages of the second way are in play if game two on Sunday is a dud, the likelihood of that happening is low. Why I prefer to have more of an even flow build is for the ability to late swap. With the Packers and Bucs on first this comes into play particularly if your lineup contains a lot of chalk – which we will get into who that is fully later – but for this example let’s use Aaron Jones who is potentially looking to be the highest rostered player on the slate. Jones has great opportunity to hit averaging 3.5 goal line opportunities per game but he has every probability to not hit a ceiling playing the leagues #1 ranked defense. If you use Aaron Jones as an RB1 and keep you flex play in the Bills/Chiefs game, you will know how you fare with Jones by the end of the first game and if he does falter you an late swap your team around to try and make up for it with plays from the second game. Late swap on a 2 game slate can be your best friend, so build your lineup in a way that you have the ability to use it…

If you are in favor or one game over the other or you just are having trouble building a lineup with pieces for each without having some FoMo on a player, later in the weekend I will release my showdown articles for both games so PLEASE stay tuned for those as a compendium to my article today.

Betting Lines:

It is also important to know as you build, what Las Vegas is saying. Who is Vegas favoring? What is the total points expected? Why does this matter? 9 times out of 10, Las Vegas has it right and keeping this information in the back of your head as you build will be handy. Should you go heavier on the team favored or the team that Vegas thinks will be playing catch up ball? If Vegas thinks that one game will have 20 more points scored than the other, should I maximize exposure on that game or should I buck the trend and max my exposure to the other assuming most people won’t. These are things to consider…

Las Vegas has the Kansas City Chiefs favored by 3 and the Green Bay Packers favored by 3.5.

Las Vegas has the AFC Championship’s projected point total at 53

Las Vegas has the NFC Championship’s projected point total at 50.5

Quarterbacks

As of Saturday morning Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are collectively being rostered by 70% of the field on Draft Kings. That is pretty incredible if you consider that the two quarterbacks in the second game are the two active quarterbacks most referenced as “The GOAT”. The other thing that I want to point out is pricing on the QBs. Neither on Draft Kings or FanDuel is there a QB priced over $9,000. On DK the price ceiling for QBs is $7,600. I find this to be intriguing because of all of the marketing of these games – the QBs are the stars and you would think that the major sites would price “the stars” up the way they do in NBA or NHL. If you combine the projected ownership and the aggressive pricing, you can really do a lot with any quarterback that you want … so here is how I am seeing things:

Patrick Mahomes practiced in full on Friday and carries no injury distinction going into Sunday’s AFC Championship Matchup agains the Bills. In my mind I had little doubt that Mahomes was going to miss this game, which is an opportunity to repeat as AFC Champion and have a repeat trip to the Superbowl on the line. In Mahomes’ last meeting with Buffalo he threw for 225 yards and 2 scores and ran for 36 more yards. At $7,600 on DK and $9,000 on FD he is the highest priced QB on the slate and frankly if I am rostering Mahomes (even at a fair price) I need more than the 20.6 Fantasy Points he scored in week 6. Now I think we can all agree that the Buffalo team he will see on Sunday has grown up a lot since Week 6 and in fact that week 6 game had a final point total of 43. As we know Vegas has the total of this game at 53 or 10 more points. If we are to assume that 10 extra points comes from a stronger Buffalo Bill’s offensive attack than Mahomes will need to be, well, Mahomesin’ to keep pace. So on the one hand, he seems like an excellent play. BUT It may be striking to hear that Patrick Mahomes has thrown for over 300 yards in only 8 of 14 games played this season, including Week 6 against the Bills. In fact he has not thrown for over 300 yards in any of his last 3 games… this includes a tight 17-14 finish against Atlanta. So while I will have some shares of Mahomes in my lineups, he doesn’t present himself as the priority to me the way his close to 40% ownership seems to imply that he is…

Josh Allen on the other side of the ball is the second highest priced and second highest owned Quarterback on the slate, but the thing is … I think that ownership is something to note. I would not be surprised to see Allen end up as the chalkiest of chalk plays by the time kickoff rolls around. Both Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are tied on the season with 34 Touchdown Passes. Both Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have thrown for roughly 5,000 yards this season. However where Allen pulls away from Mahomes is with his legs. Josh Allen has 100 more rushing yards than Mahomes on the sesason thus far and perhaps most importantly Allen has 9 Rushing touchdowns on the season to Mahomes’ 3. Now you are saying – yeah it’s because Mahomes just throws bombs to Tyreek Hill for scores but I counter that with the fact that as shown above, Mahomes hasn’t really lit up the screen in every game in fact close to half of them he has had fairly run of the mill numbers. Meanwhile Josh Allen has had only one less 300+ yard passing game than Mahomes’ this season but his legs have made a difference… If we are to assume that Vegas is giving the Bills more points than they scored in Week 6, than you have to assume that Josh Allen will be the catalyst and while he isn’t my favorite play on Sunday I actually prefer him to Mahomes in DFS.

I see one of two things playing out in the AFC Championship. Either we see an offensive explosion from one or both of these teams or that one of these defenses shock the world. In the latter scenario, one of these teams dominates offensively. The Bill’s Defense has been coming on strong in the back half of this year while the Chiefs’ strong secondary has shown some holes. I don’t see this as a forgone conclusion that the Chiefs win in other words. If I am stacking this game I am looking heavily at the matchups for each team and building from there. The Bills for instance rank 4th against Wide Receiver and 28th against Tight End. The logic says that Travis Kelce should be a lock to stack with Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs rank 2nd against Wide Receiver and 30th against Tight End. So Dawson Knox is the lock to stack with Allen? That is how the field will play this game. When I say I am looking at the matchup I am looking against the grain. Tyreek Hill is in a tough matchup on paper but what happens when Mahomes feeds Kelce down the field and it’s Hill that scores the TD? How much did that 4th against Wide Receiver mean there? As we get into skill player ownership, perhaps you will see where I am going with this. Think differently in your lineup builds.

Aaron Rogers is my favorite Quarterback Play of the Weekend. It may come as a surprise to some to hear me say that. Am I a Tom Brady Truther? Yes – I live in Boston after all. But facts are the facts. Aaron Rogers has played 8 Playoff Games at home in his career and won 6 of them. He hasn’t lost a playoff game at home since 2013. Does that matter? Well a similar stat mattered a lot last week in Brady’s Matchup with the Saints – Tom Brady has never lost to a team 3 times in a season – remember that? 7 Years since Rogers has lost a home playoff game … c’mon now. Is he due to lose one? I mean is it going to be warm at Lambeau in January? NO! It is interesting to me that the AFC Championship is predicted to outscore the NFC Championship when you have two offenses have combined for 213 Points over their last 3 games. But the big reason why Rogers is my favorite play is the Buccaneers’ rush defense. If you read my stuff you know, I don’t play running backs against Todd Bowles and his rush defense. All it means to me is that I think Rogers will be throwing and throwing often. Over that same span of 3 games the Bucs defense has allowed 76 points and if it hasn’t been on the ground – well… I also like that Rogers is the 3rd highest owned QB play and at only 16.7% ownership I think he is firmly in play. Additionally under priced at only $6,500 on Draft Kings and $8,700 on FanDuel I like the price. He will be my highest owned QB on the slate on Sunday.

Tom Brady comes into this game on a hot streak. There is no doubt. Since the bye he has thrown only 1 interception in 6 games and has thrown 2 or more touchdowns in each of those games for a total of 20. Brady is also chasing his own history. Can he win the big one with out Bill Belichick? Can he continue to show that he is the greatest Playoff Quarterback in history? Plus – Can he overcome Aaron Rogers and his own Goatness? Can he play the Superbowl – at home? Can he win a Superbowl at home? There is a lot to that kind of pressure, but Brady has had pressure on him before. That is how the Packers need to beat Brady – apply pressure. Interestingly the Packers are the 2nd Best Team against Quarterbacks in the league, so at least the stats say that is what they will try to do to Tom Brady – pressure him. But Brady has a lot to counter that. First has he played in Cold Weather before – yes of course. Has he played in Hostile environments before, more than he can probably count. But has he played in either of those environments with as talented a receiving corp that he has now to throw to? No sir he hasn’t. I think it is crazy that Tom Brady is not only the least expensive of the four but he is also the least owned too … 13% ownership in a game that has a projected 50 point total? The only reason why I prefer Rogers to Brady is Rogers is at home. But make no mistake, I will have plenty of Tom Brady in my lineups.

If I had to pick the dog fight game of the weekend, it will be the NFC Championship. You have two all time greats battling for supremacy and one offense (the Packers) who have been every bit of definition of efficiency going against an offense (the Buccaneers) who have been every bit of the definition of explosive over the second half of the season. Which is why I am stunned at the lack of ownership on Rogers and Brady and I will be taking advantage of that lack of ownership in my builds.

Wide Receiver

Your top 3 Priced Wide Receivers and top 3 owned Wide Receivers should come as no surprise. Tyreek Hill at 42% ownership, Davante Adams at 42% ownership, Stefon Diggs at 39% ownership. Of the 3 Adams is the priciest. If you need me to tell you who to play here, good luck. Each of these men are averaging 9.5 Targets per game. Each of these men have put up 100 yards or a touchdown or both in their playoff games so far in 2020. Each of these men are the #1 Wide Receiver Target for their quarterbacks. Each of these men can be argued for or against by many. For me though if I had to play only one … it’s Diggs.

Don’t get me wrong, I love Davante Adams on Sunday against a Bucs secondary that has allowed a lot of yardage this season. But where Diggs separates from the pack for me is in 5 of his last 6 games he has not only gone for 100 yards or more, but he also has 6 Touchdown catches to his credit. He has seen no less than 9 targets in each of these games as well including 4 of the last 6 games having 11 or more targets. That is beyond the #1 Receiver to me. That is a dependency and a security blanket for his quarterback that leads me to Diggs. In fact since the Bill’s bye in week 11, Diggs has gone for less than 27 Fantasy Points only twice. Let that sink in. Yes he is a chalky play but of the big 3 he may have the most upside and it will be tough for me not to just set the lock button on Diggs on Sunday.

If you compare Mahomes and Allen’s ownership to that of Hill and Diggs, to me it screams that the stack of QB and Receiver with these two tandems will be the most popular stack in lineups. To me what Adam’s massive ownership shows when compared to Roger’s sub 20% ownership is that Adam’s will be a very popular “one off” play at Wide Receiver. So I will go against the grain and stack Rogers – Adam’s and play one of Hill or Diggs (mostly Diggs) in lineups. The slight leverage here is avoiding the chalk of Mahomes and Josh Allen in that build.

Please don’t mistake the above for me saying don’t play Davante Adams or Tyreek Hill. What I am saying here is that I prefer Diggs and come at using Adam’s and Hill differently to gain a manner of leverage on the field. I hope that makes sense.

The 4th and 5th Most Popular and Most Expensive Wide Receivers on the slate is Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. I have to be honest, I love these guys too and I love that their Quarterback is the least expensive and least owned on the slate. The question is who to play and can you play both. Statistically over the back third of the season Godwin has been the more productive player with 7 or more targets over the last 5 weeks and 5 Touchdown catches to Evans seeing 7 or more targets only 3 times in that span and also only having 3 touchdowns. But we can’t discount that Evans has been playing hurt for the majority of games since the Buc’s bye week and that to start the season it did appear that Evans was becoming a favorite target of Brady’s. I think if I was going to lean on one of these guys it would be Godwin only due to the recent production, which to me makes him a solid cash play, where Evans has much more volatility and makes him a preferred pick for GPP Tournaments. Honestly I am fine playing either of these guys and the double stack will definitely be contrarian. The interesting thing to me is when you compare their ownership to Brady’s, the Bucs stack in general seems to be a contrarian approach. The added benefit to both Godwin and Evans is that Antonio Brown is out and somehow that hasn’t pushed either man to near the ownership of Hill and Adams. Keep that in mind as you are constructing your lineup.

Another interesting Wide Receiver Ownership matter is between John Brown and Cole Beasley who surprisingly (especially for Brown) are extremely close in ownership at 33 and 32% respectively. It strikes me because by the eye test, Beasley has easily usurped Brown as the #2 wide receiver on the Bills and in fact guys like Gabriel Davis and Isiah McKenzie are seeing 5% or less ownership where in both cases I’d much rather play them over John Brown. Particularly with Gabriel Davis who has consistently seen 4 or more targets since the bye week and has 4 touchdowns in that span. Davis will be a game time decision due to injury but at a cheap price and no ownership I will have plenty of shots on him if he plays. If he doesn’t I think a flier on McKenzie is definitely worth a look but even if Davis is out, McKenzie isn’t a must start for me. It’s not that I don’t think Cole Beasley is a good play or that John Brown isn’t capable of turning back the clock but if you are going to eat 30% or more ownership in your lineup I’d prefer to just go with Diggs and one of either Davis or McKenzie as a double stack and get the leverage…

In that same game when you get past Hill and Kelce it is always a crapshoot on the Chiefs. I think the big decider is Sammy Watkins. Watkins is questionable to play and like Davis above could be a game time decision. If Watkins plays, I think you have to take a look. With Watkins out for the divisional round you have Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle seeing a combined 10 targets and so I have to think if Watkins is back on the field, he will have a strong role in the offense. I don’t like playing Demarcus Robinson ever but if Watkins misses again he could be looking at over 70% of snaps. Hardman saw 4 Targets in Watkins’ absence and was the most productive, so I don’t mind him in Tournaments if Watkins is out – with Hardman’s speed he is only a deep go route away from double digit fantasy points and a threat to run a ball back on a kick return. I prefer both Robinson and Hardman to Pringle – again if Watkins misses. If Watkins is in though, I will have very little of the other three.

The last Wide Receiver seeing 20% or more ownership is Alan Lazard. Lazard finally made truthers of the Lazard-Rogers relationship happy taking 8 targets for 96 yards and a really nice touchdown last week against the Rams. I prefer Lazard to any of the secondary wide outs in the AFC Championship. I don’t like Chasing performances like Lazard’s last week normally, but at home in a juicy matchup with the Bucs I will have some shots on the Lizard King. I will also have have at least one shot on Marques Valdez-Scantling. I think anyone who says Rogers doesn’t trust MVS needs to rethink their thoughts. He also saw 8 targets from Rogers last week and like Hardman he is only one deep catch and run away from Double Digit Fantasy Points. MVS is currently projected at 5% ownership and I think he has a lot of sneaky play appeal on Sunday.

With AB Out I think you have to keep Scotty Miller in your player pool has had 1 or more catch since the Bye week which isn’t anything to get excited about but keep in mind AB played in each of those games. If you are looking for a cheap low owned dart throw, Miller is one to keep in mind – especially in Showdowns. However the guy on the Bucs that I am most intrigued with is Tyler Johnson. Ty’s overall stats aren’t anything to get excited about but it was his catch last week that stole the show. Johnson really seemed to be the guy who took AB’s spot (not from a production standpoint, but from a snap standpoint) and with a week of practice with the first team, he could open some eyes up on Sunday. He is cheap and no one is playing him but I’ll take some shots in a double stack with either Evans or Godwin in tournaments.

Running Back

It is actually fairly astounding the ownership that Aaron Jones is seeing. Nearly 70% of DFS lineups are projecting to contain Aaron Jones and to me that is just a big red flag. Do I like Aaron Jones the player, of course. Do I like the offense he plays for, I dare say love is a better word. But Jones is playing the #1 Ranked Rushing Defense who in week 6 held him to 15 yards and a touchdown on the ground and 26 receiving yards. 13.1 points. And that was before America fell in love with AJ Dillon’s thighs. Now perhaps it was because Green Bay had a comfortable lead against the Rams but what I saw in that game was a committee which Aaron Jones yes but Jamaal Williams had 9 touches and AJ Dillon’s Thighs made multiple appearances… why on earth are we thinking that game plan changed? Look I am not saying fade Aaron Jones but pump the breaks – 70% ownership? I will be WAY underweight on Aaron Jones in my lineups. Now I will say I don’t mind his price on DK at $6,500, but $8,000 on FD is too steep for me. I don’t know guys, I just don’t see Aaron Jones hitting a ceiling in this game … unless he takes advantage of his 3.5 goal line opportunities per game and to be honest, that is the only reason I’ll have some shares of Jones for… Could the cold weather break the Bucs and Aaron Jones runs wild on them like the Ultimate Warrior on broken Andre The Giant? Sure… but at 70% ownership and climbing… you NEED that to happen and I don’t know if I can do it…

On the other side of the ball you have the second highest owned running back Leonard Fournette. At over 50% ownership and a very attractive $5,300 price tag on DK, I can understand why. First the Green Bay rushing defense has been a play we have been targeting running backs against all season and Fournette has seen 19 and 17 attempts in each game of the playoffs so far – and delivered. 21+ Fantasy points in both games aided by roughly 40 yards receiving and a touchdown in each game. Last week Ronald Jones returned which should have slowed Fournette down but no sir – it didn’t. Do I think two weeks removed from injury does Ronald Jones return to leading this backfield? I don’t know … I do know that RoJo took the Packers to town in week 6 to the tune of 113 yards and two scores. Have the Packers gotten better against the run? No they have not. The only question here is how long the Bucs are able to run on first and third down before Brady needs to throw to keep pace. Due to this, I think Fournette has the edge here especially with AB out. RoJo saw only one target last week, his first since week 14 where Fournette saw 6. So that to me is why Fournette’s ownership is so high and Ronald Jones’ hovers at around 20%. I will be honest I do prefer Fournette here myself and against the 70% owned Aaron Jones I can stomach Fournette’s ownership especially on Draft Kings at $5,300. FanDuel has Fournette at $7,200 and with RoJo hanging around that is a little pricey for me. I’d prefer to play Jones on FD at nearly $2,000 less. I do think you will want to have a piece of the Tampa Bay backfield in your lineup. The matchup is too good to pass up regardless of game script.

I’ll tell you though, if Clyde Edwards-Helaire is able to play he may be one of my favorite RB plays on the weekend. CEH is currently questionable, as is Lev’eon Bell by the way. If neither man can go Darrel Williams is firmly in play for me after the performance we saw against Cleveland (13 for 78 and 4 catches). Williams is cheap and currently projects at 5% ownership. But back to CEH, I have to wonder if the running back position in KC has been minimized simply because it wasn’t Clyde in the backfield all of these weeks. This is purely gut talking here but in this matchup, at home against a Bill’s defense ranked 21st against running backs and allowing over 120 yards per game if Clyde is active, I am going to be on him like tires to the road. Interestingly the field is with me it seems as CEH is the 3rd highest owned RB on the slate at 30%. If we get news he will not play I do expect Darrell Williams’ ownership to rise considerably. I’d also expect to see Lev Bell’s ownership rise should he be active and Clyde not. To be fair Lev Bell would have as much of a solid matchup as Williams against Buffalo but of the two I do prefer Williams. But back to Clyde… never forget it was Patrick Mahomes who strongly urged for Coach Andy Reid to draft Clyde. IF CEH is active, he’s my guy to offset the heavy ownership on Jones and Fournette…. The problem is with a running back in a Patrick Mahomes led offense you do have to worry about usage – but if the Chiefs jump out to an early lead, you could see the RB usage rise considerably and if it does I want to know I took advantage.

Another curious case of Ownership is Devin Singletary. This has been a tough year for Singletary on a whole but with Zack Moss on IR, this is really Singletary’s backfield and honestly he has looked good when given the opportunity over the last three weeks. Here’s the thing though since week 16 Singletary has failed to break 10 Fantasy Points. Like his high during that stretch has been 7.4 fantasy points to be exact. To be fair over the last 3 weeks he has played Baltimore, Indianapolis and Miami three of the better rush defenses in the league, but to me it just comes down to usage. Over those last 6 games Singletary has carried the ball on average 7.5 times while being targeted 3.5 times. Those aren’t stats you need for a 40% owned running back… to be fair he finally gets a decent matchup to ply his trade against as the Chiefs also in the bottom third of the league against running backs and allowing over 120 yards on the ground. I think his high ownership comes from the idea that the Bills will try and grind the run game to simply control the clock and keep Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines. Could that be the case – sure. But with the way Josh Allen plays football I think the answer to how do we beat Mahomes isn’t keep him on the sideline, it is score more points then him and in this offense if that is the philosophy I don’t see 20 touches for Singletary in the cards. So yes he is cheap but I’ll have little interest in Singletary on Sunday for that reason. I much prefer nearly every other running back to him. But if you are Devin Singletary truther, more power to ya.

Tight End

It will be tough to get around Travis Kelce on Sunday. Only once since the Chiefs’ week 11 bye has Kelce failed to see 10 or more targets. 5 times in that span he has gone for 98 or more yards, three of those over 120 yards. He also has had a touchdown in every game except 1, since the bye. He gets a team that has struggled against the tight end all season long and ranks 29th in the league against the position. Like I said it will be tough to get around Travis Kelce on Sunday. He is the most expensive and highest owned tight end literally by a mile. Honestly the stack of Mahomes – Kelce will be as popular as Mahomes – Hill, if not more. It will be tough to get around Travis Kelce on Sunday.

But should you decide to, at least on DK, you have a TON of Value to Consider. The first of which is Robert Tonyon. Only $3,600 on DK coming off a 60 yard performance against LA, Tonyon closed the regular season with 6 Touchdowns in 7 games and has become a favorite target of Aaron Rogers’. The Buccaneers are middle of the road against Tight Ends and with their secondary likely busy trying to stop Davante Adams I think Tonyon is a strong play. His ownership is literally half of Kelce’s by the way.

And how about Big Gronk? Seriously though with no AB on the field, I think Rob Gronkowski is criminally underpriced on DK at only $3,200 and right below him Cameron Brate at $3,000. Both of these guys will see targets from Brady and had Tom not over thrown Rob Gronkowski in the endzone last week he would have had yet another Touchdown. Brate is more of a showdown play for me, but at less than 10% ownership and CHEAP pricing, I will have shares of Gronk on Sunday in Brady stacks.

The last tight end I’ll mention here is Dawson Knox. $2,800 on DK, $4,700 on FD and in a game against the 30th ranked team against his position. I think the Josh Allen flip pass to Knox over the goal line in the wild card round will be replayed for years. Always a target on 2nd and 3rd and long as well as in the Red Zone the cheap price tag on Knox has him the 3rd highest owned Tight End at a whopping 11%…. that is literally how vast Travis Kelce is from an ownership perspective to the rest of the field. But Knox is in play, perhaps more of a showdown play than the main slate but at $2,800 on DK you can do some wild and wholly things with the rest of your lineup.

Speaking of Lineups – how about we build one! Let’s start with Draft Kings!

QB: Aaron Rogers

RB: Leonard Fournette

RB: Darrel Williams

WR: Davante Adams

WR: Chris Godwin

WR: Stefon Diggs

TE: Dawson Knox

FL: Tyreek Hill

DST: Bills

Salary Remaining: $200

DK Projected*: 144.20

*Adding the projected scores based on DK Projections

How about FanDuel?

QB: Tom Brady

RB: Ronald Jones

RB: Darrel Williams

WR: Stefon Diggs

WR: Davante Adams

WR: Mike Evans

TE: Travis Kelce

FL: Dawson Knox

DST: Bills

Good Luck in your Contests!

Keep an eye out for my Showdown Picks coming tomorrow!

2021 Divisional Round DFS Strategy & Picks – Saturday Slate – Ownership is out the window, Leverage is key…

It was the divisional round in 2014 or 15 where I got hooked on DFS. Also where I won my first tournament and couldn’t believe a $3 entry fee could take me so far. Isn’t that what we all hope for however? That miracle best lineup ever?

The reason why the Divisionals are so good for DFS though (in my opinion) is that because there are only 4 games to play, high ownership on certain players is practically a given. So much so often times you will find you can’t avoid it as you are constructing a lineup. So the key to winning becomes less about avoiding chalk but finding leverage off that chalk and that can make for some very fun and unique lineups. Let’s look at the Rams Packers game first because I think I can show you what I mean.

Davante Adams is currently projected as the highest owned receiver close to 32% of the field. I think Davante Adams is a must play every week. He has helped me win 2 out of my last 3 Fantasy Championship. His consistency in his offense is what makes him so appealing. Also, people seem to forget every week how damn good this guy is at getting separation and running his routes. Jalen Ramsey, Troy Hill? Do they scare me when I am playing $8,000+ receiver sure – but with Adams it’s just a different animal. DK Metcalf to me is a guy who could approach Adam’s stature in DFS – someday. If you want to even look at Metcalf as distant close comp, in this matchup against the Rams – I think you probably need to play Davante Adams. Adams lines up all over the field and unless Jalen Ramsey decides to Shadow him, which is possible, I think Adams will be fine in this matchup. BUT he is chalk and the Aaron Rogers -Davante Adams stack is chalk. So where is the leverage? In this game you also have the highest owned running back on the slate – Cam Akers. I think because most people rostering the Rogers-Adams stack will run that back with Cam Akers. Why? Jared Goff is playing in cold weather with a bum thumb. Logic says the Rams will want to run the ball against the 24th worst team in the league against running backs. So where is the leverage? Play Akers-Adams game stack and no Rogers. Sure both Akers and Adams are chalk, but you can open yourself to play another less chalky QB-WR stack to offset. For instance Tom BradyChris Godwin or Lamar JacksonHollywood Brown for instance. Or play Rogers-Akers game stack with no Adams. Stack Rogers with TE Robert Tonyon and run it back with Akers. Tonyon by the way, hovering around 8% owned and he has a touchdown in 7 of his last 8 games! Play Robert Tonyon – only $4,200 on DK! Or stack Rogers with Marquez Valdez Scantling who really only needs to catch a 50 yard bomb for a touchdown to pay off his salary.

This is not me saying don’t play Rogers – Akers – Adams game stacks, I will have a few lineups with it. I mean Aaron Rogers is chasing an NFC Title repeat, another Superbowl appearance and another MVP title this weekend. It’s tough to look past Rogers and his #1 target. What I am trying to do here is show you some ways to play these guys while gaining leverage on the field. But there are other plays at WR to consider that I think have arguably more upside than Adams today who also can provide you leverage on the field.

Michael Thomas – Thomas is only about 2% less owned than Adams, but his salary on DK is why he is my top leverage play. Thomas is nearly $2,000 less than Adams and what that saving can open up for you is where you can begin to build a unique lineup from. Plus you get a healthy Mike Thomas at home in the Voodoo Dome with Drew Brees under center – a lethal combination for opposing defenses. Thomas admittedly wasn’t lights out against the Bears last week with 73 yards and a score but now he plays a team ranked 25th against Wide Receivers and allowing over 270 yards per game through the air. How do you not like an underpriced Mike Thomas today.

Tyreek Hill – $600 less expensive than Adams today, 4% less ownership and he plays the Browns at home in Arrowhead. Are you freakin’ kidding me. To be fair it will be tough to find leverage with Hill only because naturally you will want to pair him with Patrick Mahomes who is the Chalk QB today at 30% ownership. But there is a way that I like. Game stack Baker Mayfield – Tyreek Hill and instant leverage found. I do not think I need to go into #Analysis why Patrick Mahomes is a GREAT play today so it is tough to not roster him in this matchup, but Baker makes for an interesting leverage play stacked with Hill and/or Travis Kelce as Baker’s ownership is in the basement and with the way he and his offensive line is playing, there is no reason on paper why Mayfield could be one of the highest fantasy scoring QB options on the slate. Also there is real value on this slate that you can find to allow you to include Adams or Thomas on a Mayfield – Hill game stacked lineup. More on that later.

Stefon Diggs! It is bizarre but he is actually cheaper than last week on DK! He is nearly $1,000 less than Adams and to be honest his usage alone should put him in serious consideration this weekend. Sure the Ravens have a great defense but so did the Dolphins, so did the Colts. This guy has seen LESS than 9 targets only 4 times this season and he has only dipped below 8 targets twice. 6 Catches for 128 Yards and a score against the Colts last week and his price dropped? What is going on here? He is about 5% less owned than Adams – BUT because Patrick Mahomes’ ownership is so huge, Josh Allen is projected at less than 15% owned. Now to be fair the Cincinnati game aside, the Ravens have held their opponents to 14 points or fewer in 3 of their last 4. However two of those teams were the Giants and Jaguars … Allen – Diggs stacks, let’s go!

Marquise Brown! Crazy right? Marquise Hollywood Brown in the conversation of Mike Thomas, Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams? Well the proof is in the pudding. 6 Touchdowns in his last 7 games. In fact he has gone 85 yards or more OR a Touchdown in all 7 of those games. The Bill’s secondary is something to note BUT the difference maker is his QB Lamar Jackson who creates opportunity. Lamar too – way to under owned for this game, the way he has been playing and Hollywood is way to underpriced (in my opinion). I like this game to put up a lot of points and I think a unique approach would be to Game Stack Lamar or Allen with Diggs and Hollywood, the use Adams or Thomas and do a second game stack there. Adams with Akers, Thomas with Godwin for example or even Tyreek Hill with Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt. Your lineup will appear chalky, but if Lamar or Allen’s ownership holds, the QB position will give you leverage.

I hope this can give you some ideas on how to play the Studs, eat some chalk but gain leverage while you are doing it. There are a lot of great plays in these 4 games and some really striking value to be found too. So let’s get into who else I like and where I can I’ll give you more strategy for leverage. By the way, so I don’t repeat myself too much – everyone that I highlighted in bold above is in play for me today in one way or another and I think they should be in your player pool. So if I don’t go back to them below, don’t think I don’t like them today.

We spoke at length about Davante Adams, Aaron Rogers and a bit on Cam Akers but this Packers Rams game really intrigues me for a number of reasons above and beyond those three studs. (PS – I really like Cam Akers today, way underpriced on DK for a guy likely to see 20 touches against a defense ranks 25th against running backs. He is my favorite running back play today). While I do not have a lot of interest in his quarterback, Robert Woods pops out to me as a guy that is way UNDER OWNED and way UNDER PRICED for his opportunity. Cooper Kupp is a game time decision after not practicing all week due to a knee injury. He is a game time decision. But I like Woods today as I think Jared Goff will be looking his way early and often. I like the end around plays and sweep plays that Woods often runs and he is just a solid receiver in a plus matchup. I down grade Woods slightly if Kupp plays but if Kupp is out, I think Woods is a somewhat sneaky WR 2 or Flex. I should mention too if Kupp is out Josh Reynolds is only $3,900 on DK and he becomes immensely interesting. I also think Ram’s Tight Ends are in play. Especially if Kupp sits, I think Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett should be in your player pool. Surprisingly, Higbee is the 3rd highest owned Tight End behind Kelce and Andrews, so for me I like Everett as the cheap dart throw leverage … I think a lot of the Higbee ownership is due to the uncertainty on Cooper Kupp. I’d rather play a cheap Josh Reynolds however over both tight ends.

Staying in this game on the other side of the ball, the Packers Stud I haven’t talked about is Aaron Jones. Who is the second highest owned running back on the slate, which is a bit surprising given the recent narrative that Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon cut into Jones’ workload too much. But it isn’t really true. We have seen when the game is on the line the Packers turn to Jones. 20 Touches against Carolina, 15 against the Lions and Eagles, 17 against Chicago – these are all teams you can run on and the Rams have shown weakness in the run game lately. I could also see draw plays and stunts, wheel routes and screens all coming Jones’ way today to try and offset the Ram’s pass rush. So I do think Aaron Jones is a pretty good play today, not my favorite but he is in the mix. I’ve already mentioned both Marquez Valdez Scantling and Robert Tonyon as stacking options with Rogers… and to me that is the only thing that prevents me from making Aaron Jones a stone cold lock is the Packers passing game. Uniquely a Jones-Adams team stack will be very unowned as no one likes to play a #1WR and #1RB on the same team. But we have seen a Derrick Henry-AJ Brown game stack take down a tournament in the past. Just sayin’.

Tom Brady has never lost 3x in a single season to the same team. How many times have you hear that this week? Look the fact is the Saints have had Brady’s number this season – BUT I do want to mention that Brady himself has said he didn’t firmly get a full handle on this offense until after the Bye and the Saints last played him way back in Week 9. Plus they have not played Brady with Antonio Brown at all this season. As a Patriots fan I can tell you Big Game Tom is real and I really like the Brady – Godwin – Brown triple stack. Throw in Rob Gronkowski if you want or take a flier on Cameron Brate or Scotty Miller (both guys are deep dart throws and more showdown players for me but I wanted to mention them) I just feel like this Bucs team is going to take it to the Saints and I think a lot of people are sleeping on it. I will not. The only Buc receiver I am not as high on is Mike Evans only because I think there is bad blood between Evans and Saints CB Marshawn Lattimore and I kinda want to stay away from that matchup. But Evans really has been Tom’s favorite target this season especially in the endzone, so it’s not that I am Xing Evans out of my player pool, I’ll just have more of Godwin and Brown.

Leonard Fournette is getting a lot of ownership here and he certainly looked great last week but the Saints have been lights out on running backs this season and while Fournette is cheap, I am just not convinced Ronald Jones is all the way out of the picture. Additionally Keyshawn Vaughn has been getting some looks too which makes the Buccaneers backfield a little too murky for me to swim in. That’s just me though. If you are an Uncle Lenny Truther, more power to ya.

We spoke a lot about Mike Thomas already but on a whole I like the Saints offense this weekend. I think Drew Brees will be playing for his livelyhood in New Orleans after the Taysom Hill experiment went so well earlier in the season for the Team. By the way I think I need to start a movement here that if Drew Brees is playing, Taysom Hill should be classified as a TE/QB and allowed to be rostered on Draft Kings and Fan Duel. I am just saying. But the reason why I like Drew Brees a lot (in addition to Mike Thomas) is that I like Emmanuel Sanders. Although quiet last week Sanders had been on a nice run with Brees over the last 4 games and as a cheap, WR2 that has no ownership I am willing to take a shot. I also like TE Jarrod Cook who definitely has Brees’ eye in the red zone and has back to back games of 4 catches and 5+ targets. Again with Kelce and Andrews on this slate, I think Cook along with the Rams tight ends are going a bit overlooked.

I have said for the last season I do not play running backs against the Buccaneers and yes Alvin Kamara is on this slate, but I personally will stand by my statement. There is no doubt Alvin Kamara is a special player with 6 touchdown upside but the last time Kamara took the field against the Bucs 9 for 40 and 1 on the ground and 9 yards receiving. Kamara is the highest owned running back on the slate and the most expensive as well and I just can’t see paying either of those costs if he has a strong chance at under 20 Fantasy Points. Not to mention how often they look to Taysom Hill and Latavius Murray in this offense. I will be underweight on Kamara today and if that kills me it kills me, but that’s my story and I am sticking to it. I much prefer Brees and his receivers.

We spoke about Baker Mayfield earlier and why I like him in a game stack with Tyreek Hill as a leverage play, we didn’t get to talk about the Browns weapons and I think the Browns are being overlooked in general and I am ready to attack. Jarvis Landry is seeing about 25% ownership on the slate and it I think it is warranted. The Browns love the empty backfield 4 wide set a lot and with the way that offensive line has been protecting Baker, especially in second half of this season Landry has seen mismatch after mismatch. And he even throws touchdown passes too. Landry has seen 8 or more targets in 5 of his last 7 and put on a show against a tough Steelers defense last week 5 for 92 and a score. I look for Landry to have a big game against the Chiefs. I also think taking a cheap dart throw at Rashard Higgins or Donovan Peoples-Jones here isn’t a bad idea, if you are building Baker Mayfield stacks. No one is going too deep at Wide Receiver from an ownership perspective but especially in the case of DPJ who has emerged as a deep threat, I do like offsetting some of the Chalk from Landry by double stacking with another Browns receiver. These two may be more of a showdown play for me but I wanted to mention them as I could see Baker airing it out against the Chiefs to keep pace. I do like Austin Hooper the Tight End as well a lot. He is coming off back to back touchdown games and now sees the Chiefs Defense who rank close to dead last (31st) against Tight Ends. He is emerging as a favorite target for Baker too, seeing 11 or more targets in 2 of his last 3. Again with Kelce, Andrews and Higbee sucking up ownership, Hooper is dwindling below 15% and could be a solid pivot if he sees 8 or more targets including a Red Zone target.

The two Browns I am most interested in however are Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Both of these guys are Underpriced today – Chubb at $6,600 and Hunt at $4,800 and frankly, we have been playing running backs all season against the Chiefs who allow over 120 yards on the ground. The Browns are second only to the Titans as one of the most run heavy offenses in the league and they are first for running plays in neutral or losing game scripts. I do not know if you noticed last week but the Browns flipped the script with these two guys last week. Chubb labeled as the power runner by the media had nearly as many receiving yards as he did rushing and he CAUGHT a touchdown. Meanwhile Hunt labeled as the Pass Catching back in the offense had more carries than targets and had 2 touchdowns on the GROUND. Don’t be surprised if the Browns may flip the script again against the Chiefs to catch them off guard with these two. Chubb is the 6th highest owned running back on the slate and Hunt the 7th and I’d rather play either of them over Leonard Fournette or Devin Singletary both with more ownership. I am going to have a lot of the Cleveland backfield.

What is left to say about the Chiefs that has not been said. A rested Patrick Mahomes at home with a potential repeat trip to the AFC Championship on the line against a team ranked 22nd against Quarterbacks and allowing nearly 280 yards through the air. Good Luck Browns. It is no wonder Mahomes is far and away the most owned QB on the slate and Tyreek Hill right beside him. But for me, it’s Travis Kelce time. Arguably the Wide Receiver two on this team if not on the entire slate, no other tight end sees the target share; the yardage or the red zone opportunities than Kelce and the Browns have been SHREDDED by tight ends, ranking almost dead last (30) against the position. Kelce is the #1 Owned and #1 Priced Tight End on the slate for good reason. Often it is said you can’t play Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce in the same lineup and I say, Why? Price prohibitive – ok maybe – but in this matchup I am going to give you the green light. I think the Browns keep this game competitive and I think that means Mahomes will be throwing and I could see both Hill and Kelce having a big day. But I love Travis Kelce here. Last night I watched Thor the Dark World and when he smashed his hammer into that Dark Elf at the end, it reminded me of Thor spiking the ball to the end of the Browns playoff hopes. Book it Danno.

I don’t mind taking a flier on Demarcus Robinson or Mecole Hardman either since Sammy Watkins is out. I prefer Hardman to Robinson in Tournaments due to the explosive speed plays he can make where I think Robinson will see more targets. Both are fine in Showdown Slates too and in Showdowns I don’t mind taking a flier on Byron Pringle either who had a nice game in Week 17 with the starters sitting. I do think a sneaky play, especially in Showdowns is stacking Hardman with the Chiefs DST as Hardman is a kick returner with wheels and if a kick is returned for a touchdown you get double points with the DST stacked.

The dark horse on the Chiefs for me though is Clyde Edwards-Helaire. CEH hasn’t practiced this week but local reports are saying he was held out for additional rest and not continued injury. If CEH is playing, I will take shot. First off no one will play CEH let alone a Chiefs running back (Lev Bell or Darrell Williams for example) especially against a Browns team ranked 7th against the run and barely giving up 100 yards. But something tells me that there is a design for CEH should he take the field and especially as a pass catching back, I just have a feeling people are sleeping on a potential game breaker. Especially if the Chiefs go ahead big. If CEH is in, I’ll have a share or two. If he is out I won’t have a Chiefs running back on any of my rosters.

I saved the main event (at least in my opinion) for last. I think that the Bills and Ravens will be the game to watch and the game to try and take as much from. Yes the Ravens have a strong defense and yes the Bill’s secondary can shut teams down … but all of that aside – Josh Allen vs Lamar Jackson are you freakin’ kidding me. You have the new Gunslinger in town against the reigning MVP who has recently got his groove back. You are talking about two offenses that have combined 141 points over their last 2 games. Amazingly as I noted earlier, with Patrick Mahomes taking up so much ownership you are looking at Josh Allen perhaps with his lowest ownership in 2 seasons at sub 15% and Lamar Jackson at 15%. Holy moly. Last week Jackson ran for 136 yards and a score and threw for 179 yards and a score while Allen thew for 324 yards and 2 scores and ran for 54 and a score. Fire Up a showdown slate and make sure both of these guys are in the lineups. No seriously, on the main slate I think it comes down to personal taste. Defensively both teams have reasons to give you pause. But I’ll be honest if the only two QBs you use in your lineups today are Allen and Jackson, I don’t blame you.

We talked about Stefon Diggs earlier and how shockingly misplaced he is – but what about Cole Beasley? $4,900 on DK are you serious? If the Ravens are rushing and hurrying Allen all day, Beasley should have himself a fine game. He is seeing some ownership at 17% but not enough in my opinion. The X in this equation for me though is John Smoky Brown who put up a goose egg last week, but look if the Ravens are able to slow Diggs down at all who is the other field stretcher Allen can drop a bomb too… ok maybe that is Gabriel Davis now, but honestly I like both Brown and Davis as cheap low owned pieces to a Bills stack or even as cheap lineup fillers with upside. Isiah McKenzie also fits that mold too, though he is more of a Showdown play for me. I do have a lot of interest in Tight End Dawson Knox however. That shovel pass touchdown between he and Allen last week will be on highlights forever and it really got the Bills going. I like Knox as a low owned pivot to the chalkier Tyler Higbee for example.

The thing that is stuck in my craw though is the ownership that Devin Singletary is seeing. With Zack Moss out, I get it – the backfield should be Singletary’s and he is cheap only $4,500 on DK. But am I missing something here? Am I missing the Devin Singletary breakout game to base any of this ownership off of? He is projected at near 30% ownership! Easy fade for me. I’d rather look at a similarly priced Gus Edwards in this same game. The Bus has been busy in this backfield and due to pricing he makes a very solid leverage play versus the chalk Singletary.

I also think JK Dobbins is being overlooked too. Dobbins should be in a great matchup here with the Bills in the back half of the league against the run and allowing over 120 on the ground. Dobbins has been scoring Double Digit fantasy points since week 13 and additionally has one or more touchdowns in every game in the same span. Dobbins is at 10% ownership currently. I will finish with my 3 Ravens targets that I think you need to be looking at. Mark Andrews of course, one of Lamar Jackson’s favorite targets and the second highest owned TE on the slate. Andrews should have every opportunity to perform against the Bills who rank near last in the league against Tight Ends (29th). Then we have old faithful Willie Snead. Snead has been quiet over the last 3 games but as a guy running 70% of the Wide Receiver snaps I think he is 3 catches for 65 yards and a score away from giving you a solid contrarian pivot from Hollywood Brown (who if you remember I also like today). Last but not least – Myles Boykin. Since the Raven’s bye, Boykin has become much more involved with 3 touchdown catches and we have seen Lamar look deep Boykin’s way several times over the last 3 games. Another dart throw, perhaps a Showdown Play more than anything else but as a second piece to a Lamar – Hollywood or Lamar – Andrews stack I think Snead and Boykin have a lot of upside and no one is playing or talking about them.

Good Luck in your Contests!

Sunday Wildcard Weekend DFS Picks & Strategy – PART THREE – Browns Steelers – 8:15PM Start – Read it NOW!

Baker Mayfield should be one of the most popular quarterbacks today but he is not. No one has faith in young Baker against the full strength Steelers Defense at Home … but Baker has an entire city on his shoulders and you can’t help but route for the underdog. However in DFS, underdogs don’t always mean the pick to go with. With Lamar Jackson, Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Tannehill and Drew Brees all on this slate, Mayfield is going very underowned today. The Steelers are 1st against QBs and 2nd against the pass and even at a less than full roster of Steelers last week in a must win, Baker threw for under 200 yards and only 1 score. He did rush for 44 yards though. The one plus I will say on Baker is that he has all of his weapons on the field. Jarvis Landry, Rashard Hollywood Higgins, Donovan Peoples-Jones … hmmm maybe take a pause. Ok but he also has Austin Hooper and Harrison Bryant and Kareem Hunt to pass too. Ok, take some pepto and call me in the morning.

If I am playing Baker I am going full stack. Landry – Higgins – Hooper or if you want to replace Higgins with Peoples-Jones and Hooper with Bryant, I don’t have issue with it. The reality is the Browns are facing a Steelers team who feels robbed of the #2 seed and are at home and all of their defensive studs will be playing. It isn’t to say they can’t win this game – I just want to stack Baker with as many of his pass catchers as I can however because I think he will be spreading the ball around today out of necessity. See an open guy, throw to that open guy. Landry is the priority here in the stack but the other pieces you can use your judgment. #Analysis

The Brown I am most interested in however is Nick Chubb. Chubb is coming in today at literally half of the ownership of Kamara and Henry and if there is a way to beat the Steelers it is on the ground. If the Browns can establish the ground game with Nick Chubb it can open up the play action passing game that Baker loves. So to me this whole offensive game plan has to start with Chubb. Chubb did not play in the first meeting with this team in week 6 but last week he had 14 carries for 108 yards and a score. In fact all season long only 2 times has Chubb failed to have less than 15 rushing attempts. The Steelers rank 15th against running backs and are allowing over 111 yards on the ground. As a true pivot from the chalk of Kamara and Henry, I like Chubb a lot today. I do realize the narrative that if the Steelers take a big lead it will be Kareem Hunt and not Chubb seeing the work.. but I am not as much of believer on that. In both games against the Steelers this season Hunt has scored UNDER 10 Fantasy points, so I think the underlying thing here is that even if Hunt is getting some looks, he hasn’t really been doing enough to warrant fading Chubb. I won’t be.

Big Ben Roethlisberger is the second highest owned Quarterback behind Lamar Jackson and I am not surprised. Only once all season long has Ben thrown the ball less than 30 times and most recently over the back half of the season Ben has averaged a whopping 39.7 Pass Attempts per game. Wow. The Browns did present a challenge to Ben in Week 6 though holding him to 162 and 1 score. But Week 6 was a LONG TIME AGO for Big Ben who has clearly become more comfortable back in the game after a season long injury. The one pause I have here on Ben though is that Week 6 represented a season high for James Connor on the ground taking 20 carries for 101 yards and a score. So I do wonder if the Steelers buck every trend they have shown this season and try and get Connor going early and often. It makes Connor a very interesting and very contrarian (like under 10% owned contrarian) James Connor play today. I for one am not as high on Big Ben as the rest of the field. He offers zero in the running game and you really need him to break the 300 yard passing mark to make a dent in the scoring and I am not convinced he does that. I will be underweight on Ben but probably overweight on Connor, relative to the field.

I think the priority in the Steelers offense though is Diontae Johnson who has really emerged as the #1 Target in this offense. The Browns offer little resistance to wide receivers. I also like Chase Claypool a lot today in Tournaments. While Johnson offers that Cash security floor, Claypool has multiple TD upside and I like that a lot. Don’t sleep on JuJu either – especially in tournaments. Ju-Ju has red zone appeal and has seen 5 targets per game consistently. No one is playing JuJu and especially in Showdowns, I like JuJu as a contrarian play. I also think Eric Ebron should be looked at for Tight End. The lowest owned of the big 4 starters today (Andrews, Cook, Hooper, Ebron) the Browns have been terrible against Tight Ends all season and Ebron coming off of an injury may be primed to step back into his 4-5 target role. Ebron has 8 games of double digit fantasy points this season and is a sneaky TE play today. If you are playing showdowns tonight I would keep James Washington and Anthony McFarland in your player pool too….

Good Luck in your Contests!